Inspur Software Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600756) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 26% after a shaky period beforehand. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 18% over that time.
Although its price has surged higher, Inspur Software's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 1.8x might still make it look like a strong buy right now compared to the wider Software industry in China, where around half of the companies have P/S ratios above 4.7x and even P/S above 8x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly reduced P/S.
How Has Inspur Software Performed Recently?
For example, consider that Inspur Software's financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. One possibility is that the P/S is low because investors think the company won't do enough to avoid underperforming the broader industry in the near future. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.
We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Inspur Software's earnings, revenue and cash flow.What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The Low P/S?
The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/S as depressed as Inspur Software's is when the company's growth is on track to lag the industry decidedly.
Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 5.3%. Even so, admirably revenue has lifted 56% in aggregate from three years ago, notwithstanding the last 12 months. Accordingly, while they would have preferred to keep the run going, shareholders would definitely welcome the medium-term rates of revenue growth.
Comparing the recent medium-term revenue trends against the industry's one-year growth forecast of 26% shows it's noticeably less attractive.
With this information, we can see why Inspur Software is trading at a P/S lower than the industry. It seems most investors are expecting to see the recent limited growth rates continue into the future and are only willing to pay a reduced amount for the stock.
What We Can Learn From Inspur Software's P/S?
Shares in Inspur Software have risen appreciably however, its P/S is still subdued. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.
Our examination of Inspur Software confirms that the company's revenue trends over the past three-year years are a key factor in its low price-to-sales ratio, as we suspected, given they fall short of current industry expectations. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in revenue isn't great enough to justify a higher P/S ratio. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.
It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Inspur Software, and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
If you're unsure about the strength of Inspur Software's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.