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There's Reason For Concern Over Shanghai DZH Limited's (SHSE:601519) Massive 26% Price Jump

shanghai dzh limitedの(SHSE:601519)株価が26%急騰し、懸念の理由があります

Simply Wall St ·  09/26 20:25

Shanghai DZH Limited (SHSE:601519) shareholders have had their patience rewarded with a 26% share price jump in the last month. But the gains over the last month weren't enough to make shareholders whole, as the share price is still down 9.4% in the last twelve months.

Since its price has surged higher, you could be forgiven for thinking Shanghai DZH is a stock to steer clear of with a price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") of 18.5x, considering almost half the companies in China's Capital Markets industry have P/S ratios below 5.9x. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/S.

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SHSE:601519 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry September 27th 2024

What Does Shanghai DZH's Recent Performance Look Like?

For instance, Shanghai DZH's receding revenue in recent times would have to be some food for thought. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from collapsing. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Shanghai DZH's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

How Is Shanghai DZH's Revenue Growth Trending?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/S as steep as Shanghai DZH's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the industry decidedly.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 7.5%. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 4.1% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 16% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that Shanghai DZH's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Bottom Line On Shanghai DZH's P/S

The strong share price surge has lead to Shanghai DZH's P/S soaring as well. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-sales ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

We've established that Shanghai DZH currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see revenue heading backwards and underperforming the industry forecasts, we feel the possibility of the share price declining is very real, bringing the P/S back into the realm of reasonability. Should recent medium-term revenue trends persist, it would pose a significant risk to existing shareholders' investments and prospective investors will have a hard time accepting the current value of the stock.

Having said that, be aware Shanghai DZH is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis, you should know about.

If you're unsure about the strength of Shanghai DZH's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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