You may think that with a price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 6.8x Yunnan Tourism Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002059) is a stock to potentially avoid, seeing as almost half of all the Hospitality companies in China have P/S ratios under 4.6x and even P/S lower than 1.8x aren't out of the ordinary. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/S.

How Has Yunnan Tourism Performed Recently?

With revenue growth that's exceedingly strong of late, Yunnan Tourism has been doing very well. It seems that many are expecting the strong revenue performance to beat most other companies over the coming period, which has increased investors' willingness to pay up for the stock. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

Is There Enough Revenue Growth Forecasted For Yunnan Tourism?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, Yunnan Tourism would need to produce impressive growth in excess of the industry.

If we review the last year of revenue growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 65%. However, this wasn't enough as the latest three year period has seen the company endure a nasty 62% drop in revenue in aggregate. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenues over that time.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 26% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.

In light of this, it's alarming that Yunnan Tourism's P/S sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

What We Can Learn From Yunnan Tourism's P/S?

Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

We've established that Yunnan Tourism currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. Right now we aren't comfortable with the high P/S as this revenue performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Yunnan Tourism that you should be aware of.

If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.