Three points to focus on in the afternoon session ~ After the recovery to the 39,000 yen level, the mood to assess the LDP leadership election intensifies.

Fisco Japan · Sep 27 11:30

27日の後場の取引では以下の3つのポイントに注目したい。

・日経平均は小幅続伸、39000円台回復後は自民党総裁選を見極めるムード強まる

・ドル・円は伸び悩み、ドル買いは一巡

・値上り寄与トップは東京エレクトロン＜8035＞、同2位はファナック＜6954＞

■日経平均は小幅続伸、39000円台回復後は自民党総裁選を見極めるムード強まる

日経平均は小幅続伸。前日比39.02円高（＋0.10％）の38964.65円（出来高概算9億3000万株）で前場の取引を終えている。

26日の米国株式市場は上昇。ダウ平均は260.36ドル高（＋0.62％）の42175.11ドル、ナスダックは108.08ポイント高（＋0.60％）の18190.29、S&P500は23.11ポイント高（＋0.40％）の5745.37で取引を終了した。予想を上回った経済指標を受けて、景気見通し改善に伴う買いに、寄り付き後、上昇。中国政府が成長目標達成のため財政支援強化する方針を示し需要回復見通しも支援材料となった。ナスダックは半導体のマイクロンの上昇がけん引。相場は終日堅調に推移し終了した。

米国株高や為替の円安推移などを材料に、東京市場は買い優勢で取引を開始した。日経平均は9月2日以来となる39000円台を回復してスタートしたが、配当落ちや前日の1000円超の上昇などが意識されて、上値は重くなった。実質的な次の首相が決まる自民党総裁選の投開票を午後に控えていることも売買手控え材料となった。

日経平均採用銘柄では、資生堂＜4911＞、安川電機＜6506＞、ファナック＜6954＞など中国関連銘柄の一角が買われたほか、米テック株の上昇を受けて、レーザーテック＜6920＞、東京エレクトロン＜8035＞、ルネサスエレクトロニクス＜6723＞など半導体株の一角が上昇。このほか、荏原製作所＜6361＞、住友鉱＜5713＞、オムロン＜6645＞、レゾナック＜4004＞などが買われた。

一方、原油価格下落を受けてENEOSホールディングス＜5020＞、INPEX＜1605＞が下落したほか、三井住友トラストHD＜8309＞、三井住友＜8316＞、コンコルディア＜7186＞、みずほ＜8411＞、MS&AD＜8725＞、野村＜8604＞など金融株が総じて売られた。このほか、大成建設＜1801＞、大林組＜1802＞、ニチレイ＜2871＞、ニデック＜6594＞などが下落した。

業種別では、機械、精密機器、化学、繊維製品、ゴム製品などが上昇した一方、石油・石炭製品、鉱業、パルプ・紙、銀行業、証券・商品先物取引業などが下落した。

自民党総裁選の投開票は13時からスタートし、結果は14時20分頃に伝わる予定だが、9名が立候補し本命不在の総裁選となったことで決戦投票となるのは必至と見られている。決選投票の結果は15時40分頃と大引け後に伝わる公算が大きいことから、後場の東京市場は模様眺めとなろう。ただ、金融株やグロース市場の一部銘柄には「高市トレード」が入っているとの観測もあるが、一回目の結果発表時に高市氏が敗れた場合、こうした銘柄の巻き戻しが活発化となる可能性はあるので注意は必要だ。

■ドル・円は伸び悩み、ドル買いは一巡

27日午前の東京市場でドル・円は伸び悩み、144円76銭から145円56銭まで上昇後は145円付近に失速した。仲値にかけて国内勢のドル買いが強まったが、買いは一巡。一方、日経平均株価は上値が重く、株高を好感した円売りは限定的のようだ。

ここまでの取引レンジは、ドル・円は144円76銭から145円56銭、ユーロ・円は161円82銭から162円56銭、ユーロ・ドルは1.1162ドルから1.1177ドル。

■後場のチェック銘柄

・ライスカレー＜195A＞、Ｌｉｂｅｒａｗａｒｅ＜218A＞など、7銘柄がストップ高

※一時ストップ高（気配値）を含みます

・値上り寄与トップは東京エレクトロン＜8035＞、同2位はファナック＜6954＞

■経済指標・要人発言

【経済指標】

・日・9月東京都区部消費者物価指数(生鮮食品除く)：前年比+2.0％（予想：+2.0％、8月：+2.4％）

・中・8月工業企業利益：前年比-17.8％（7月：+4.1％）

【要人発言】

・クック米FRB理事

「労働市場は堅調だが、顕著に冷え込んでいる」

「インフレ上振れリスクは減少、雇用の下振れリスクは増加」

＜国内＞

・14:00　7月景気動向指数・先行（速報値：109.5）

＜海外＞

・特になし

In the afternoon of the 27th trading day, the following three points should be noted.

・The Nikkei Average continues to rise slightly, with a stronger mood to assess the Liberal Democratic Party leadership election after recovering to the 39,000 yen level.

・The dollar-yen struggles to rise, with the dollar buying having peaked.

・Tokyo Electron <8035> tops the list of gainers, followed by Fanuc Corp <6954>.

■The Nikkei Average continues to rise slightly, with a stronger mood to assess the Liberal Democratic Party leadership election after recovering to the 39,000 yen level.

The Nikkei average continues to rise slightly. It closed the morning trading at 38,964.65 yen, up 39.02 yen from the previous day (+0.10%), with an estimated volume of 0.930 million shares.

The U.S. stock market rose on the 26th. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 42,175.11 dollars, up 260.36 points (+0.62%), the Nasdaq at 18,190.29, up 108.08 points (+0.60%), and the S&P 500 at 5,745.37, up 23.11 points (+0.40%). Following better-than-expected economic indicators, there was buying due to improved economic outlook. The Chinese government's plan to strengthen fiscal support to achieve growth targets and the prospect of demand recovery also supported the market. Micron's rise in the semiconductor sector led the Nasdaq. The market remained firm throughout the day.

With the rise in U.S. stocks and the weakening yen, the Tokyo market started trading on a bullish note. The Nikkei average started by recovering the 39,000 yen level for the first time since September 2, but faced resistance due to ex-dividend adjustments and the significant rise of over 1,000 yen the previous day. The impending vote counting for the Liberal Democratic Party's leadership election, where the next prime minister will be effectively decided, also contributed to caution in trading decisions.

Among the Nikkei average constituent stocks, shares of Shiseido<4911>, Yasukawa Electric<6506>, and Fanuc<6954> among China-related stocks were bought, while semiconductor stocks like Lasertec<6920>, Tokyo Electron<8035>, and Renesas Electronics<6723> rose on the back of the uptick in U.S. tech stocks. Other companies like Ebara Corporation<6361>, Sumitomo Metal Mining<5713>, Omron<6645>, and Resonac<4004> were also purchased.

On the other hand, due to the decline in crude oil prices, ENEOS Holdings<5020>, INPEX<1605> declined, and financial stocks like Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings<8309>, Sumitomo<8316>, Concordia Financial Group<7186>, Mizuho<8411>, MS&AD<8725>, and Nomura<8604> were generally sold. Companies like Taisei Corporation<1801>, Obayashi Corporation<1802>, Nichirei<2871>, and Nidec<6594> also declined.

By sector, machinery, precision instruments, chemicals, textiles & apparels, rubber products, etc., rose, while petroleum & coal products, mining, pulp & paper, banking, securities & commodity futures trading, etc., declined.

The Liberal Democratic Party's leadership election voting started at 13:00, with results expected to be announced around 14:20. With 9 candidates and no clear favorite, it is likely to lead to a final showdown. The second round results are expected around 15:40, after the market close, so the Tokyo market in the afternoon may be cautious. There are observations of 'buying the highs' in financial stocks and some growth market stocks, but caution is required in case of a defeat for the favored candidate leading to a potential unwinding of these stocks.

The dollar-yen is struggling to grow, with dollar buying coming to a halt.

In the morning session on the 27th, the dollar-yen struggled to rise, rising from 144.76 yen to 145.56 yen before stalling near 145 yen. Dollar buying by domestic players increased towards the fixing price, but the buying has come to a halt. On the other hand, the Nikkei average stock price faced resistance on the upside, and the yen selling buoyed by the stock market rise seems limited.

The trading ranges so far are as follows: the dollar-yen ranging from 144.76 yen to 145.56 yen, the euro-yen from 161.82 yen to 162.56 yen, and the euro-dollar from 1.1162 dollars to 1.1177 dollars.

Check stocks for the afternoon session

・7 stocks including Rice Curry <195A> and LiberaWare <218A> hit the daily limit up.

*Includes temporary stopper (indicated price)

・Top contributors to price gains are Tokyo Electron <8035> in 1st place, followed by Fanuc <6954> in 2nd place.

Economic indicators and remarks by important people

[Economic indicators]

・Sun, Sep. Consumer Price Index in Tokyo (excluding fresh food): +2.0% year-on-year (Estimate: +2.0%, Aug: +2.4%)

・Aug. Industrial business profits: -17.8% year-on-year (July: +4.1%)

[Important Person's Remarks]

• Federal Reserve Board Director Cook

"The labor market is firm, but significantly cooling off."

"The risk of inflation overshooting has decreased, while the risk of employment undershooting has increased."

• 14:00 July Economic Outlook Index - Leading (Preliminary Value: 109.5)

Not applicable.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more

後場に注目すべき3つのポイント～39000円台回復後は自民党総裁選を見極めるムード強まる

Three points to focus on in the afternoon session ~ After the recovery to the 39,000 yen level, the mood to assess the LDP leadership election intensifies.

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