If we're looking to avoid a business that is in decline, what are the trends that can warn us ahead of time? Businesses in decline often have two underlying trends, firstly, a declining return on capital employed (ROCE) and a declining base of capital employed. Basically the company is earning less on its investments and it is also reducing its total assets. So after glancing at the trends within Fujian Qingshan Paper Industry (SHSE:600103), we weren't too hopeful.

Return On Capital Employed (ROCE): What Is It?

For those that aren't sure what ROCE is, it measures the amount of pre-tax profits a company can generate from the capital employed in its business. Analysts use this formula to calculate it for Fujian Qingshan Paper Industry:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.015 = CN¥67m ÷ (CN¥6.1b - CN¥1.7b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2024).

Therefore, Fujian Qingshan Paper Industry has an ROCE of 1.5%. Ultimately, that's a low return and it under-performs the Forestry industry average of 6.5%.

While the past is not representative of the future, it can be helpful to know how a company has performed historically, which is why we have this chart above. If you want to delve into the historical earnings , check out these free graphs detailing revenue and cash flow performance of Fujian Qingshan Paper Industry.

How Are Returns Trending?

There is reason to be cautious about Fujian Qingshan Paper Industry, given the returns are trending downwards. About five years ago, returns on capital were 3.4%, however they're now substantially lower than that as we saw above. And on the capital employed front, the business is utilizing roughly the same amount of capital as it was back then. Companies that exhibit these attributes tend to not be shrinking, but they can be mature and facing pressure on their margins from competition. If these trends continue, we wouldn't expect Fujian Qingshan Paper Industry to turn into a multi-bagger.

In Conclusion...

In the end, the trend of lower returns on the same amount of capital isn't typically an indication that we're looking at a growth stock. And long term shareholders have watched their investments stay flat over the last five years. That being the case, unless the underlying trends revert to a more positive trajectory, we'd consider looking elsewhere.

Like most companies, Fujian Qingshan Paper Industry does come with some risks, and we've found 3 warning signs that you should be aware of.

For those who like to invest in solid companies, check out this free list of companies with solid balance sheets and high returns on equity.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.