The Zhitong Finance App learned that Anxin International released a research report saying that recently, Shanghai issued a consumer voucher policy totaling 0.5 billion. Although the total amount is limited, the demonstration is of greater significance, and it is expected that other cities will follow up on the stimulus policy in the future. Special emphasis was placed on the layout value of the catering sector, mainly in the context of sentiment reversal, and the restaurant's performance is improving rapidly. For example, this wave from October '22 to April '23 benefited from retaliatory consumption after the outbreak of the epidemic, and restaurant companies' stock prices all received a double hit from Davis, achieving a high rebound. The current situation is similar to the previous wave of markets, and emotional recovery will prioritize sectors where fundamentals are easier to turn around. Currently, the sector's valuation is low, and it has great layout value.

Anxin International's main views are as follows:

occurrences

Recently, Shanghai consumer vouchers invested 0.5 billion yuan in municipal finance, including 0.36 billion yuan for dining, 90 million yuan for accommodation, 30 million yuan for movies, and 20 million yuan for sports. There are four types of food and beverage voucher face rules: 300-50, 500-100, 800-200, and 1000-300. The rules for lodging vouchers are 300-50, 600-130, 900-220, and 1200-300. Movie vouchers Each movie ticket can be redeemed with a 20 yuan or 30 yuan voucher. The general value of sports vouchers is divided into 6 tiers from 10-5 to 200-80, and special vouchers for swimming, badminton, snow and ice sports are also issued.

Industry fundamentals

Catering: The growth of the industry is weak, and the leading performance is more tenacious. Since this year, the growth rate of the catering industry has continued to slow. In January-August, sales increased 6.6% year on year. The growth rate declined month by month, and the performance was relatively weak. The characteristic of the catering industry is that it is sensitive to consumer expectations. If expectations improve, performance is expected to rebound quite clearly.

Beer: Unit sales prices are still rising, and sales are under pressure. The beer industry has benefited from increased concentration. It is still booming, and the unit sales price of beer is still rising. However, sales are under heavy pressure. Among them, there are reasons why the weather is cooler this year, and there is also a decline in demand due to weak dining and nighttime consumption.

Liquor: Demand is weak during the Mid-Autumn Festival. According to channel research data, during the recent Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, liquor sales were relatively weak, and the division of the industry continued.

Dairy products: Demand is weak, and milk prices continue to fall. After the expansion of the industry over the past three years, production capacity is facing an overcapacity situation. Prices continue to fall, and the reverse still needs to wait for production capacity to be digested. We expect that the digestion of production capacity will continue for a long time, and the rise in milk prices in the short term will also depend on improved demand.

Packaged beverages: The segment is growing well. The performance of the beverage industry is quite resilient. In January-August, sales increased 5.3% year on year, and the leading beverage companies all performed relatively steadily. Against the backdrop of falling raw material prices in the past two years, profits have recovered well, and the growth rate has been very good in segments such as sugar-free tea and sports drinks.

Tobacco: Demand is relatively resilient, and global tobacco prices are in an upward cycle. Global tobacco prices have been affected by abnormal weather in the past two years and are facing production cuts. Prices continue to rise, leading to an upward cycle in the entire tobacco industry chain. Furthermore, demand for tobacco is relatively rigid, and its ability to withstand risks is strong.

Recommended targets

The restaurant sector is the first to be promoted. The performance is more flexible and the valuation is low. Haidilao (06862), Yihai International (01579), Yum Sheng China (09987). Second, it is recommended to focus on popular targets with attractive valuations: China Tobacco Hong Kong (06055), Smore International (06969), China Resources Beer (00291), and Zhenjiu Li Du (06979). Furthermore, it is recommended to focus on the sector targets with high potential for subsequent growth: Mengniu Dairy (02319), Helen's (09869), Zhou Heiya (01458), and Xiabuxiabu (00520). These targets often bring greater upward flexibility.

Risk warning

Policy changes, spending intentions fall short of expectations, and increased competition in the industry.