This week, market optimism continued to spread. As of press time, $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ strongly surpassed the $65,000 mark, while $Ethereum (ETH.CC)$ broke through $2,600.
This Week's Hot Topics
SEC Approves Options Trading for BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF
Last weekend, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved Nasdaq Inc.'s application on Friday, allowing the exchange to list options contracts related to the $iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT.US)$ ETF.
Major Milestone! U.S. Bitcoin ETFs Have Purchased Over 300,000 Bitcoin Since Launch
Data: 94.09% of Total Bitcoin Supply Has Been Mined
On September 24th, according to monitoring data from HODL 15Capital, 19.7579 million out of the total 21 million Bitcoin have been mined, leaving only 5.91% of the remaining Bitcoin supply to be mined.
Hong Kong Stock Exchange: Currently Ten Virtual Asset ETPs Available for Selection
With the listing of Asia's first six virtual asset spot ETFs in Hong Kong in April, along with Asia's first three virtual asset futures ETFs listed in December 2022 and January 2023, the market value of Hong Kong's virtual asset ETF market had grown to over HK$3.2 billion by the end of August. Currently, there are ten virtual asset ETPs available for selection on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
Binance CEO: Binance's Historical Trading Volume Surpassed $100 Trillion in Early September
On Wednesday, Binance CEO Richard Teng posted on X platform, stating that
Binance's historical trading volume surpassed $100 trillion in early September.
PayPal Now Allowing U.S. Merchants to Buy, Hold, and Sell Cryptocurrencies Directly from Their PayPal Accounts
On September 26th, according to market news, $PayPal (PYPL.US)$ is now allowing U.S. merchants to buy, hold, and sell cryptocurrencies directly from their PayPal business accounts. At the launch of this feature, this business account function is not available in New York State.
PayPal has also provided a feature for business accounts to transfer cryptocurrencies externally.
Kamala Harris Says U.S. Should Take "Leading" Position in Blockchain, Reaffirms Support for Digital Assets
On September 26th, according to The Block, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris stated during a speech at the Economic Club of Pittsburgh on Wednesday that under her leadership, the United States will recommit to maintaining global leadership in defining the fields of the next century, maintaining dominance in artificial intelligence and quantum computing, blockchain and other emerging technologies. Until last weekend, Harris had remained silent on cryptocurrencies during her campaign. Recently, at a Wall Street fundraising event in Manhattan, Harris stated that artificial intelligence and cryptocurrencies are part of her vision for an “opportunity economy”.
Bloomberg Analyst: Current Holdings of U.S. Bitcoin ETFs Have Reached 83% of Satoshi Nakamoto's (Bitcoin Founder)
On Thursday, Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas posted on X platform, stating that U.S. Bitcoin ETF year-to-date inflows have reached $17.8 billion, hitting a new high. They have achieved 92% of the goal of owning 1 million Bitcoin, and 83% of the goal of surpassing Satoshi Nakamoto to become the largest holder. According to data disclosed by Eric Balchunas, as of September 24th, Satoshi Nakamoto holds about 1.1 million Bitcoin, while U.S. Bitcoin ETFs hold over 916,000 Bitcoin.
Institutional & KOL Perspectives
About Bitcoin
Arthur Hayes: Fed Rate Cuts Will Lead to a Weaker Dollar, Global Monetary Easing Wave Brings Opportunities for Crypto Market
According to BlockBeats, on September 26th, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated on Substack that, based on the Federal Reserve's historical patterns, once they start cutting interest rates, they typically continue to lower them until rates approach 0%. Furthermore, the growth in bank credit must be accompanied by accelerated rate cuts. The Fed will continue to cut rates, and the banking system will continue to release more dollars. Regardless of who wins the U.S. presidential election, the government will also continue to borrow to ensure the fulfillment of certain policy promises. Meanwhile, banks in various countries will also issue more loans for local economic development to provide job opportunities and rebuild increasingly collapsing infrastructure.
Major global economies will once again suppress the volatility of their countries or economies by lowering the cost of capital and increasing the money supply. This global monetary easing environment is expected to create opportunities for the cryptocurrency market.
Top Trader Eugene (X: @0xENAS): Bitcoin Won't Break $70,000 Before the Election
On September 25th, top trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted on social media stating he won't blindly chase high prices. "For me, the $65,000 to $68,000 range is a reasonable profit-taking zone for early buyers. Many waiting funds will make their final entry at $65,000, which could also mean this is the last upward momentum. He doesn't expect it to break the $70,000 ceiling before the election, so I won't choose to increase my position here. If it reaches $68,000, I'd rather choose to clear my position and wait for the next entry opportunity."
CryptoQuant CEO (X: @ki_young_ju): Michael Saylor (MicroStrategy founder) proves Bitcoin is the best strategic asset for public companies. Bitcoin has risen 237% in two years, while $MicroStrategy (MSTR.US)$ stock price has increased by 669%. During the bear market, both experienced similar declines, but MSTR's rebound strength was three times that of Bitcoin. He noted that as of September 20th, MicroStrategy holds a total of 252,220 bitcoins.
Glassnode Weekly Report:
Retail Investors Continue to Enter the Market: As of September 25, 2024, so-called 'Crab' (1-10 BTC) and 'Shrimp' (less than 1 BTC) investors holding less than 10 BTC have accumulated a total of 35,000 BTC in the past 30 days. Confidence among small investors has significantly increased.
BTC Outflow from Exchanges Has Intensified: Approximately 40,000 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges, accounting for 0.21% of the total circulating supply. The contraction in exchange supply may lay the foundation for future price increases.
Plan B (X: @100trillionUSD) once again emphasizes that the "October Effect" is about to come into play, and outlines a Bitcoin price outlook:
October: The classic surge month. BTC $70,000
November: Trump wins the election, ending the Democratic Biden/Harris/Yellen/Gensler oppression of cryptocurrencies. BTC $100,000
December: Massive ETF inflows. BTC $150,000
January: Crypto people/companies return to the USA. BTC $200,000
...
Greeks.live (X: @BTC__options) recently observed a large volume of big Bitcoin put options transactions, likely indicating major whale position transfers. As Q4 approaches, which includes the U.S. election, the election will be a massive betting pool. Currently, the overall implied volatility level is relatively low, with less than 30% of the time in the past year being lower than the current level. Whales are positioning for Q4, and trading is expected to be very active before and after the election.
Matrixport released a report stating that over the past week, as Bitcoin prices rebounded, stablecoin minting has been steadily following suit, indicating that fiat currency is flowing into the crypto market.
The institution also stated that the introduction of Bitcoin ETF options will attract more institutional participants, further reducing volatility:
"Although Bitcoin has inherent volatility and short volatility cycles, recent price fluctuations have mainly remained within a range of ±20%. As the integration of Bitcoin and traditional financial derivatives deepens further, we believe that volatility will be further compressed, and option selling strategies will continue to be effective."
About Ethereum
Matrixport released a report stating that since the FOMC, Ethereum gas fees have increased, indicating that network activity is recovering, which helps lay the foundation for higher Ethereum prices.
Too idealistic? CoinShares released a report on Ethereum usage this week. The report states that transactions on Ethereum drive ETH prices far more than other factors such as staking yields, currency adoption, or use as financial collateral. Although the Ethereum ecosystem currently offers increasingly diverse functions, most of its uses still revolve around speculation and simple token transfers, rather than the originally envisioned diverse applications.
On September 25, Lookonchain reported that the amount of ETH burned in the past week increased by 163% compared to the previous week. Before ETH price increases in 2023, there were always surges in daily ETH burns.
Tracking Bull Stocks in the Crypto Sphere
The Bitcoin mining company with the highest stock price increase this year is $Core Scientific (CORZ.US)$ , up 248%. The company has signed a 12-year contract with CoreWeave, with initial revenue expected to exceed $3.5 billion.
ETF Net Flow
BTC Spot ETF Weekly Flow
As of Thursday:
BTC spot ETFs had a total net inflow of $612.1 million this week.
IBIT had a net inflow of $388.2 million this week.
FBTC had a net inflow of $57.6 million this week.
BITB had a net inflow of $69.9 million this week.
ETH spot ETF weekly flow
As of Thursday:
ETH spot ETFs had a total net inflow of $26.3 million this week.
ETHE had a net outflow of $116.6 million this week.
ETHA had a net inflow of $84 million this week.
FETH had a net inflow of $22.3 million this week.
