The railway scene has been in for a pretty rough ride over the past few weeks. Undoubtedly, rail strike disruptions lasted for an incredibly short period of time. As I noted, such strike headlines were mostly near-term noise that meant absolutely nothing for the long-term fundamentals. Though rail strikes could leave a massive dent in the Canadian (and North American) economy as the goods stop moving from point A to point B, such disruptions would have likely translated to nothing more than better entry points for investors keen on adding to their exposure to the nation's top rail plays.
In this piece, we'll have a closer look at CP Rail (TSX:CP) stock, or CPKC (short for Canadian Pacific Kansas City) as it's now called. Following the purchase of Kansas City Southern, the company now finds itself as the largest rail in the country with a towering $107 billion market cap.
CP Rail stock: It hasn't looked this pricey in a while!
CP Rail should not get too comfortable with its newfound market cap leadership position, though, as CN Rail (TSX:CNR) isn't all too far off with its $98.25 billion market cap. In any case, CP has been chugging forward at a faster rate than its long-time Canadian rival. But the big question is whether the momentum and superior stock chart make for a better buy as we enter the month of October.
There is a danger to buying the better-performing, often far pricier stock. And with CP stock just under 7% away from hitting all-time highs just shy of $124 per share, I think that investors asking if it's too late to buy are on the right track (pardon the pun, folks!).
Is too much hype baked into CP stock?
At these levels, CP stock goes for a whopping 30.8 times trailing price to earnings (P/E). That's expensive for a railway play, and I don't care how much better it performs than rivals. There's way too much hype baked in right here, likely because of the remaining potential behind Kansas City Southern's assets purchased nearly three years ago.
Undoubtedly, the new rail network looks enviable, especially the part that extends into the southern U.S. and Mexico. Should more firms look to move production and assembly to Mexico, CP could benefit from cross-border volumes.
That said, if Donald Trump is headed for the Oval Office again, I'd argue that big tariffs could be on the cars for goods shipped to the U.S. from Mexico.
As such, I would not get overly bullish about CP Rail's unique network. Arguably, I think there's way too much enthusiasm baked into CP right here. Sure, it's the growthier, more exciting rail firm right here. However, you're paying a fat premium with the stock going for $114 and change, perhaps too fat a premium.
Is it too late to buy CP stock?
Personally, I'd much rather go for a cheaper rail play. Whether you opt for CN Rail, which goes for 18.5 times trailing P/E, or one based out of the U.S., value investors can do better with almost any other North American rail. In short, I think it's too late to be a buyer of CP Rail stock. It's just way too expensive at north of 30 times trailing P/E.
