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Qinghai Huading Industrial Co., Ltd.'s (SHSE:600243) 26% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

Simply Wall St ·  Sep 28, 2024 07:02

Despite an already strong run, Qinghai Huading Industrial Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600243) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 26% in the last thirty days. Not all shareholders will be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down a very disappointing 25% in the last twelve months.

After such a large jump in price, given around half the companies in China's Machinery industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 2.4x, you may consider Qinghai Huading Industrial as a stock to avoid entirely with its 5.5x P/S ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.

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SHSE:600243 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry September 27th 2024

What Does Qinghai Huading Industrial's Recent Performance Look Like?

For instance, Qinghai Huading Industrial's receding revenue in recent times would have to be some food for thought. One possibility is that the P/S is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Qinghai Huading Industrial's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?

Qinghai Huading Industrial's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the industry.

In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 29%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk revenue by 52% in aggregate. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 23% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.

In light of this, it's alarming that Qinghai Huading Industrial's P/S sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

What Does Qinghai Huading Industrial's P/S Mean For Investors?

The strong share price surge has lead to Qinghai Huading Industrial's P/S soaring as well. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

We've established that Qinghai Huading Industrial currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. With a revenue decline on investors' minds, the likelihood of a souring sentiment is quite high which could send the P/S back in line with what we'd expect. Unless the the circumstances surrounding the recent medium-term improve, it wouldn't be wrong to expect a a difficult period ahead for the company's shareholders.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Qinghai Huading Industrial you should know about.

If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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