Caida Securities Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600906) shareholders have had their patience rewarded with a 31% share price jump in the last month. But the gains over the last month weren't enough to make shareholders whole, as the share price is still down 8.6% in the last twelve months.

After such a large jump in price, Caida Securities' price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 54.1x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in China, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 28x and even P/E's below 17x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.

Recent times haven't been advantageous for Caida Securities as its earnings have been falling quicker than most other companies. It might be that many expect the dismal earnings performance to recover substantially, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as steep as Caida Securities' is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market decidedly.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 4.0%. As a result, earnings from three years ago have also fallen 48% overall. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 2.2% per year as estimated by the lone analyst watching the company. With the market predicted to deliver 19% growth each year, the company is positioned for a weaker earnings result.

In light of this, it's alarming that Caida Securities' P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

Shares in Caida Securities have built up some good momentum lately, which has really inflated its P/E. Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

We've established that Caida Securities currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is lower than the wider market. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless these conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Plus, you should also learn about this 1 warning sign we've spotted with Caida Securities.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Caida Securities, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.