Is COFCO Technology & Industry (SZSE:301058) Using Too Much Debt?
Is COFCO Technology & Industry (SZSE:301058) Using Too Much Debt?
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We can see that COFCO Technology & Industry Co., Ltd. (SZSE:301058) does use debt in its business. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
伯克希爾·哈撒韋的查理·芒格支持的外部基金經理李錄坦言「最大的投資風險不在於價格的波動,而在於你是否會遭受永久性資本損失。」當我們考慮一家公司有多大風險時,我們總是喜歡看看它的債務使用情況,因爲債務過多可能導致破產。我們可以看到中糧科技與行業股份有限公司(SZSE:301058)在業務中確實使用了債務。但真正的問題是,這筆債務是否使該公司變得更加風險。
When Is Debt A Problem?
什麼時候負債才是一個問題?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
一般來說,當公司無法輕鬆償還債務時,債務才真正成爲一個問題,無論是通過籌資還是通過自有現金流。如果情況變得非常糟糕,貸款人可能會接管企業。儘管這種情況不太常見,但我們經常看到負債企業因爲貸款人強迫它們以低於市價的價格籌資而不斷稀釋股東。當然,債務可以是企業的重要工具,特別是對於資本密集型企業。當我們考慮公司的債務使用時,我們首先看現金和債務結合在一起。
What Is COFCO Technology & Industry's Debt?
中糧科技與行業的債務是什麼?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that COFCO Technology & Industry had debt of CN¥47.9m at the end of June 2024, a reduction from CN¥58.1m over a year. But on the other hand it also has CN¥1.43b in cash, leading to a CN¥1.38b net cash position.
下面的圖片顯示,中糧科技與行業在2024年6月底的債務爲4790萬人民幣,比一年前的5810萬人民幣減少。但另一方面,它還有14.3億人民幣的現金,形成了13.8億人民幣的淨現金頭寸。
How Strong Is COFCO Technology & Industry's Balance Sheet?
中糧科技產業的資產負債表有多強?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that COFCO Technology & Industry had liabilities of CN¥1.84b falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥63.5m due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥1.43b and CN¥1.23b worth of receivables due within a year. So it actually has CN¥761.1m more liquid assets than total liabilities.
我們可以從最近的資產負債表看到,中糧科技產業有184億人民幣的短期到期負債,以及6.35億人民幣的長期到期負債。另一方面,它有14.3億人民幣的現金和12.3億人民幣的一年內應收賬款。因此,它實際上比總負債多出76110萬人民幣的流動資產。
This surplus suggests that COFCO Technology & Industry is using debt in a way that is appears to be both safe and conservative. Given it has easily adequate short term liquidity, we don't think it will have any issues with its lenders. Succinctly put, COFCO Technology & Industry boasts net cash, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load!
這一盈餘表明中糧科技產業正在以一種看起來既安全又保守的方式使用債務。鑑於它具有充足的短期流動性,我們認爲它不會與債權人有任何問題。簡言之,中糧科技產業擁有淨現金,因此可以說它沒有沉重的債務負擔!
Also positive, COFCO Technology & Industry grew its EBIT by 26% in the last year, and that should make it easier to pay down debt, going forward. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine COFCO Technology & Industry's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
另一個積極的方面是,中糧科技產業去年的EBIt增長了26%,這應該使其更容易償還債務。在分析債務時,資產負債表顯然是需要關注的區域。但最重要的是未來的收入,將決定中糧科技產業能否維持健康的資產負債表。因此,如果您想了解專業人士的看法,您可能會發現分析師盈利預測的免費報告很有趣。
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. While COFCO Technology & Industry has net cash on its balance sheet, it's still worth taking a look at its ability to convert earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, to help us understand how quickly it is building (or eroding) that cash balance. During the last three years, COFCO Technology & Industry generated free cash flow amounting to a very robust 90% of its EBIT, more than we'd expect. That puts it in a very strong position to pay down debt.
最後,一家公司只能用冰冷的現金償還債務,而不能用會計利潤。儘管中糧科技產業在資產負債表中有淨現金,但值得一看的是其將息稅前利潤(EBIT)轉化爲自由現金流的能力,以幫助我們了解其構建(或侵蝕)現金餘額的速度。在過去三年中,中糧科技產業產生的自由現金流相當可觀,相當於其EBIt的90%,超出我們的預期。這使其處於一個非常有力償還債務的位置。
Summing Up
總之
While it is always sensible to investigate a company's debt, in this case COFCO Technology & Industry has CN¥1.38b in net cash and a decent-looking balance sheet. And it impressed us with free cash flow of CN¥314m, being 90% of its EBIT. So is COFCO Technology & Industry's debt a risk? It doesn't seem so to us. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for COFCO Technology & Industry that you should be aware of.
雖然調查一家公司的債務是明智的,但在這種情況下,中糧科技與行業擁有13.8億人民幣的淨現金和一張看起來不錯的資產負債表。它以3.14億元人民幣的自由現金流給我們留下了深刻的印象,相當於其EBIt的90%。那麼,中糧科技與行業的債務是否存在風險?在我們看來似乎並非如此。資產負債表顯然是在分析債務時需要專注的領域。但最終,每家公司都可能存在超出資產負債表範圍之外的風險。例如,我們已經發現了中糧科技與行業的1個警示信號,您應該注意。
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
如果您有興趣投資能夠在不負債的情況下增長利潤的企業,請查看這份免費列表,其中列出了在資產負債表上擁有淨現金的成長型企業。
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