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新興市場見通し:グロース市場250指数は200日線に跳ね返される格好に

Emerging markets outlook: The Growth Market 250 index seems to be rebounding at the 200-day moving average.

Fisco Japan ·  Sep 28 01:31

Due to caution regarding taxation on financial income, selling is spreading mainly in major stocks.

The emerging markets this week have risen. While the Nikkei average rose by +5.58% during the same period, the growth market index increased by +1.22%, and the Growth Market 250 Index by +1.45%, leading to a trend favoring large cap stocks. Against the backdrop of the weakening yen and the rise in US stocks, buying was dominant in the main board market focusing on large cap stocks, but the growth market saw limited buying in major stocks over the weekend. The Growth Market 250 Index faced strong resistance at the 200-day moving average.

Among the top market capitalization stocks, Adventure <6030> surged over the weekend, while GNIE Group <2160> and Bengoshi.com <6027> remained solid. On the other hand, Integral <5842> was pressured by profit-taking selling, and Free <4478> was sold as a negative report from a securities company was considered. Additionally, speculation buying related to the LDP leadership election led to purchases of space-related stocks such as ispace <9348>, QPS Research Institute <5595>, and AstroScale HD <186A> over the weekend.

On the other hand, biotech-related stocks such as Canvas <4575>, Cell Seed <7776>, Anges <4563>, and Symbio <4592> experienced selling pressure. The recent IPOs were mixed. The first trading day prices of Growth Expert Partners <244A>, INGS <245A>, Asua <246A>, and Ai Robotics <247A> listed on the 26th surpassed the opening prices, while the first trading day prices of ROXX <241A>, Reply Priority <242A>, and Kids Star <248A> listed on the 25th and 26th were below the opening prices.

Is there a focus on recent IPO stocks?

Next week, the emerging markets, although not as strong as the main board market, are expected to start with a selling trend. Following the election of Shigeru Ishiba as the new president of the Liberal Democratic Party, the exchange rate market saw a ¥4 strengthening of the yen against the US dollar compared to the closing price on the 27th, resulting in a weaker dollar. Overnight trading of the Growth Market 250 Index futures experienced a more than 3% decline compared to the daytime closing price, indicating a high likelihood of a significant decline in the growth market at the beginning of the week. Even the space-related stocks that were lively over the weekend like AstroScale HD and QPS Research Institute are likely to be pushed down. While there was no speculative buying related to the LDP leadership election as in the main board market, the situation seems to be inclined towards an expansion of selling in major stocks due to caution over financial income taxation. The chart pattern of the Growth Market 250 Index is likely to be influenced by the psychological barrier of the 200-day moving average resistance line, similar to July and August.

Investment in large market capitalization major stocks is likely to be cautious, however, it is assumed that there will be speculative interest in recent IPO stocks by process of elimination. Stocks like Ai Robotics and INGS, which showed strong movements over the weekend, are trading above their initial prices, which could raise interest. Furthermore, Shimadaya <250A> is scheduled to be listed on the Standard Market on October 1st. Engaged in the manufacture of noodles and related food products, its lack of novelty might pose challenges for popularity.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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