分析称，纳斯鲁拉被杀是过去两周以色列对真主党迅速扩大攻势的重大升级，Oil bears currently hold a record position, and if the Strait of Hormuz is closed, the risk premium for oil prices may arrive, leading to a surge in oil prices. In addition, oil prices are also supported by global easing cycle, inventory growth, and positions and valuations at low levels.
The situation in the Middle East suddenly escalated, Goldman Sachs stated that the oil price has not yet factored in the geopolitical risk premium, and there is still room for further upside.
According to CCTV news, on September 28th local time, Hezbollah in Lebanon issued a statement confirming the death of Hezbollah leader Nasrallah. On the 29th, after Nasrallah was assassinated, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke out for the first time, stating that in Iran or the Middle East, there is nowhere beyond Israel's reach, and they will continue to fight with Israel.
Analysts suggest that the killing of Nasrallah is a significant escalation following Israel's rapid expansion of attacks on Hezbollah in the past two weeks, which could evolve into a full-scale regional war.
Brent oil surged in response, briefly touching the $72 level, currently trading at $71.98 per barrel, with an intraday increase of 1.25%.
The crude oil market has not priced in the geopolitical risk, focusing on the situation in the Hormuz Strait.
Goldman Sachs pointed out that currently, the crude oil market has not priced in major geopolitical risks, while being supported by multiple positive factors.
In a recent report, Goldman Sachs analyst Lina Thomas analyzed that the recent crude oil market is being driven by four positive factors: entering a global easing cycle, inventories still increasing (expecting future supply shortages), positions and valuations still low, market has not factored in geopolitical risks.
This means that with the support of the above factors, there is still upside potential for oil prices.
Goldman Sachs analyst lindsay Matcham also stated in the latest report that when the conflict escalates to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the oil price may begin to incorporate a risk premium:
"We believe that further escalation of the conflict could have a significant impact on the market, especially if it involves the possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which could lead to a spike in oil prices here."
As investors increase their bearish bets, the net short position in the crude oil market has now hit the largest on record, with geopolitical risk escalation leading to increased pressure on crude oil shorts.
Matcham stated:
"With tensions escalating between Hezbollah and Israel, we will continue to closely monitor the conflicts in the Middle East."
