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Kader Holdings Company Limited's (HKG:180) 27% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

Simply Wall St ·  Sep 29 20:30

Kader Holdings Company Limited (HKG:180) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 27% after a shaky period beforehand. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 12% over that time.

Although its price has surged higher, there still wouldn't be many who think Kader Holdings' price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.9x is worth a mention when the median P/S in Hong Kong's Leisure industry is similar at about 0.6x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.

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SEHK:180 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry September 30th 2024

How Has Kader Holdings Performed Recently?

For example, consider that Kader Holdings' financial performance has been pretty ordinary lately as revenue growth is non-existent. Perhaps the market believes the recent run-of-the-mill revenue performance isn't enough to outperform the industry, which has kept the P/S muted. Those who are bullish on Kader Holdings will be hoping that this isn't the case, so that they can pick up the stock at a lower valuation.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Kader Holdings' earnings, revenue and cash flow.

How Is Kader Holdings' Revenue Growth Trending?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the industry for P/S ratios like Kader Holdings' to be considered reasonable.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered virtually the same number to the company's top line as the year before. Whilst it's an improvement, it wasn't enough to get the company out of the hole it was in, with revenue down 17% overall from three years ago. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 10% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.

In light of this, it's somewhat alarming that Kader Holdings' P/S sits in line with the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

What We Can Learn From Kader Holdings' P/S?

Kader Holdings appears to be back in favour with a solid price jump bringing its P/S back in line with other companies in the industry Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

The fact that Kader Holdings currently trades at a P/S on par with the rest of the industry is surprising to us since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term, all while the industry is set to grow. Even though it matches the industry, we're uncomfortable with the current P/S ratio, as this dismal revenue performance is unlikely to support a more positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Kader Holdings (at least 1 which is concerning), and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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