The Zhitong Finance App learned that China Post Securities released a research report saying that the current market is still trading a soft landing for the US economy. Inflation expectations are picking up, and gold and silver are also rising. China Post Securities believes that in the long run, the increase in the US deficit rate and geopolitical disturbances compounded by the nearshoring of the US supply chain will not change the central bank's money purchase logic. The short-term interest rate cut deal has basically come to an end. If inflation expectations decline too fast, gold is also expected to fluctuate to a certain extent, and the upward trend may be volatile rather than smooth sailing. Copper prices will rise in anticipation of a soft landing. Be wary of the risk of a reversal of expectations during the National Day; lithium may be repaired in the short term, and medium term pressure is still there; the pattern of uranium supply and demand is good, and physical investment funds may re-enter the market.

Precious metals: Expectations for a soft landing increased, and gold and silver also rose. The market was still trading the soft landing of the US economy last week. Inflation expectations picked up, and gold and silver also rose. Ultimately: COMEX gold rose 1.27% and silver rose 1.33% last week. China Post Securities believes that in the long run, the increase in the US deficit rate and geopolitical disturbances compounded by the nearshoring of the US supply chain will not change the central bank's money purchase logic. In the short term: The interest rate cut deal is basically over. We still need to pay attention to the US economic data in the future. If inflation expectations decline too fast, it is expected that gold will also fluctuate to some extent. The upward trend may be volatile rather than smooth sailing, while continuing to be bullish on the gold to silver ratio.

Aluminum: Macro expectations are improving, and steady growth expectations are the main line of the market. Aluminum prices rose 5.91% last week and returned to more than 0.02 million yuan/ton. Electrolytic aluminum continues to be stored, mainly due to the introduction of a basket of domestic fiscal and monetary policies, and the market's expectations for the future market are good. On the supply side, the problem of tight overseas supply of alumina is difficult to resolve in the short term, and frequent accidents have highlighted market concerns. Combined with incidents such as alumina plant maintenance in many parts of the country, the supply was reduced compared to the previous period. The supply of electrolytic aluminum came from news that the Guizhou electrolytic aluminum factory was gradually resuming production. Overall, the supply side is still tight; the operating rate of leading domestic aluminum downstream processing companies on the demand side increased 0.3 percentage points to 63.8% from last week, up 0.5 percentage points from the same period last year. By sector, the operating rate of the profiles and recycled alloys sector increased slightly during the week, driven by improved orders, while the rest of the sectors remained stable.

Copper: Copper prices will rise in anticipation of a soft landing. Be wary of the risk of a reversal of expectations during the National Day. LME copper prices rose 5.14% last week. China's economic policy shift to expectations that the domestic economy will recover strongly. Combined with stable overseas markets, copper prices have risen significantly. Currently, the market's trading focus has shifted to US non-agricultural and PMI data during the National Day period, and bears may be waiting for weaker non-agricultural data to fight back. The main variable affecting the future trend of copper prices is the expected inflation situation of the US economy. If the recession is too fast, even if interest rate cuts are expected, they may still be doing more harm than good for copper prices, and the upward cycle of copper may have to wait some time until the Federal Reserve actually cuts interest rates. Historically, expectations of relatively slow interest rate cuts may be difficult to quickly raise inflation expectations.

Lithium: There is a possibility of a fix in the short term, and pressure remains in the medium term. The spot price of lithium carbonate is still around 0.075 million, but the futures price has now rebounded above 0.08 million, reflecting the market's optimism about future recovery expectations. However, China Post Securities believes that futures price recovery is limited. First, in the Ningde era, the cost of the lithium mica mine, which is expected to stop production, was around 0.09 million. Prices continued to rebound, and secondly, lithium carbonate prices rebounded above 0.09 million. Outsourced mining and smelters are expected to actively enter the market to short hedging, creating pressure. With the supply and demand structure still poor, China Post Securities should not make an overly optimistic judgment.

Uranium: Good supply and demand pattern, in-kind investment fund or re-entry. Uranium prices resumed their upward trend last week, but they are still at a low point during the year. On the supply and demand side, the resumption of production in Kazakhstan was delayed, and the overall increase was limited. The US restarted the Sanli Island nuclear power plant for AI servers. Nuclear power support was strengthened, and demand for nuclear power may still be catalyzed in the second half of the year. Furthermore, the holdings of physical investment funds have not increased significantly for two consecutive years. Under the interest rate cut cycle, financing costs have decreased, or the purchasing trend has restarted.

Investment advice

It is recommended to focus on CICC Gold (600489.SH), Zijin Mining (601899.SH/02899), Societe Generale Silver Tin (000426.SZ), Tin Co., Ltd. (000960.SZ), Lizhong Group (300428.SZ), and CGN Mining (01164).

Risk warning:

The macroeconomy fluctuated greatly, demand fell short of expectations, supply releases exceeded expectations, and the company's project progress fell short of expectations.