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Is Guangdong Tloong Technology GroupLtd (SZSE:300063) A Risky Investment?

Is Guangdong Tloong Technology GroupLtd (SZSE:300063) A Risky Investment?

廣東天龍科技集團股份有限公司(SZSE:300063)是一項風險投資嗎?
Simply Wall St ·  2024/09/30 13:38

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We note that Guangdong Tloong Technology Group Co.,Ltd (SZSE:300063) does have debt on its balance sheet. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

傳奇基金經理李錄(受查理·芒格青睞)曾經說過:「最大的投資風險並不是價格的波動,而是你是否會遭受到永久性資本損失。」因此,聰明的投資者似乎知道,債務(通常涉及破產)是評估一家公司風險程度時非常重要的因素。我們注意到,廣東天龍科技集團股份有限公司(SZSE:300063)確實在資產負債表上有債務。但股東們是否應該擔心公司對債務的使用呢?

When Is Debt Dangerous?

債務何時有危險?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

債務是幫助企業增長的工具,但如果企業無力償還其債權人的債務,則其存在於債權人的掌控之下。資本主義的本質是「創造性毀滅」過程,其中銀行家無情地清算破產的企業。但通常(雖然仍然很昂貴)的情況是企業必須以便宜的股價稀釋股東,僅僅是爲了控制債務。話雖這樣說,最常見的情況是企業合理管理其債務,並使其對自身有利。考慮企業使用多少債務時,首先要做的是看其現金和債務總額。

What Is Guangdong Tloong Technology GroupLtd's Debt?

廣東天龍科技集團有限公司的債務是多少?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that Guangdong Tloong Technology GroupLtd had CN¥723.5m of debt in June 2024, down from CN¥809.1m, one year before. However, because it has a cash reserve of CN¥107.4m, its net debt is less, at about CN¥616.1m.

您可以點擊下方的圖表查看歷史數字,但它顯示,廣東天龍科技集團有限公司在2024年6月的債務爲72350萬元,低於一年前的80910萬元。然而,由於其有10740萬元的現金儲備,淨債務較少,約爲61610萬元。

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SZSE:300063 Debt to Equity History September 30th 2024
SZSE:300063債務與權益歷史截至2024年9月30日

A Look At Guangdong Tloong Technology GroupLtd's Liabilities

天龍集團有限公司負債情況一覽

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Guangdong Tloong Technology GroupLtd had liabilities of CN¥1.10b falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥201.0m due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥107.4m as well as receivables valued at CN¥1.92b due within 12 months. So it actually has CN¥727.6m more liquid assets than total liabilities.

從最近的資產負債表中可以看到,天龍集團有限公司有着一年內到期的110億元人民幣的負債,以及20100萬元人民幣以上期限的負債。抵消這些義務的是,它擁有10740萬元人民幣的現金,以及12個月內到期的192億元人民幣的應收賬款。因此,它實際上比總負債多了72760萬元人民幣的流動資產。

It's good to see that Guangdong Tloong Technology GroupLtd has plenty of liquidity on its balance sheet, suggesting conservative management of liabilities. Because it has plenty of assets, it is unlikely to have trouble with its lenders.

很高興看到天龍集團有限公司在資產負債表上有着充足的流動性,表明對負債的保守管理。由於擁有的資產很多,它不太可能與債權人產生困難。

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

Service Corporation International的債務是其EBITDA的3.5倍,而其EBIT可覆蓋其利息開支的3.7倍。綜合考慮,雖然我們不希望看到債務水平上升,但我們認爲它可以應對當前的槓桿。好消息是,Service Corporation International在過去12個月中將其EBIT提高了2.9%,從而逐漸降低了其相對於收益的債務水平。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中獲得了有關債務的大部分內容。但是,相對於資產負債表,更重要的是未來收益,這將決定Service Corporation International維持健康資產負債表的能力。如果您關注未來,您可以查看此免費報告,其中有分析師的利潤預測。

Guangdong Tloong Technology GroupLtd has a rather high debt to EBITDA ratio of 6.7 which suggests a meaningful debt load. However, its interest coverage of 6.7 is reasonably strong, which is a good sign. Importantly, Guangdong Tloong Technology GroupLtd's EBIT fell a jaw-dropping 30% in the last twelve months. If that earnings trend continues then paying off its debt will be about as easy as herding cats on to a roller coaster. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is Guangdong Tloong Technology GroupLtd's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.

天龍集團有限公司的債務與EBITDA比率達到了6.7,這表明承擔了相當可觀的債務。不過,其6.7的利息償付倍數相對較強,這是個好跡象。重要的是,天龍集團有限公司的EBIT在過去12個月中下降了驚人的30%。如果這種盈利趨勢持續下去,償還債務會變得像把貓趕上過山車一樣困難。分析債務水平時,資產負債表顯然是開始的明顯地方。但天龍集團有限公司的盈利將影響資產負債表在未來的表現。因此,如果您想更多地了解其盈利狀況,不妨查看一下其長期盈利趨勢圖表。

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. During the last three years, Guangdong Tloong Technology GroupLtd generated free cash flow amounting to a very robust 89% of its EBIT, more than we'd expect. That puts it in a very strong position to pay down debt.

但我們的最終考慮也很重要,因爲公司無法用賬面利潤償還債務,它需要冷硬現金。因此,我們顯然需要查看EBIT是否導致相應的自由現金流。在過去三年中,天龍集團有限公司產生的自由現金流佔EBIT的模式非常強勁,高於我們的預期。這使其在清償債務方面處於非常堅實的位置。

Our View

我們的觀點

Guangdong Tloong Technology GroupLtd's EBIT growth rate was a real negative on this analysis, as was its net debt to EBITDA. But its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow was significantly redeeming. Considering this range of data points, we think Guangdong Tloong Technology GroupLtd is in a good position to manage its debt levels. But a word of caution: we think debt levels are high enough to justify ongoing monitoring. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for Guangdong Tloong Technology GroupLtd you should be aware of.

廣東天龍科技集團有限公司的EBIt增長率在這項分析中實際上是一個負面因素,其淨債務與EBITDA之比也如此。但其將EBIt轉化爲自由現金流的能力相當令人滿意。考慮到這一系列數據點,我們認爲廣東天龍科技集團有限公司有能力有效管理其債務水平。但需要警惕的是:我們認爲債務水平高到足以需要持續監控。資產負債表顯然是在分析債務時要重點關注的區域。但最終,每家公司都可能存在資產負債表之外的風險。一個案例是:我們已經發現了廣東天龍科技集團有限公司的三個警示信號,您應該注意。

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

當然,如果您是那種喜歡購買沒有債務負擔的股票的投資者,那麼不要猶豫,立即發現我們獨家的淨現金增長股票列表。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

對本文有任何反饋?對內容有任何疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。

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