Jinwu Financial News | According to Guoyuan International Development Research Report, overall domestic and export demand for PV terminals was weak in the second half of the year, and the peak season was not strong. Currently approaching the National Day holiday, component manufacturers are expected to schedule production downdraft plans against the backdrop of exhausted terminal demand; manufacturers are relatively cautious in scheduling production plans to avoid inventory backlogs. Recently, the internal price volume has been reproduced, and stock demand is limited. Manufacturers have lowered prices one after another in order to seize orders. However, when the upstream silicon maintenance was completed, the supply was more adequate than expected data. The operating rate of silicon wafers decreased during the same period, and the decline in demand for polysilicon was far higher than the increase in supply. The disadvantages of a phased mismatch between supply and demand gradually became apparent, and the continuous increase in inventories put pressure on enterprises to raise prices. Therefore, the overall judgment is that there is a mismatch between industry supply and demand, and subsequent industrial chain prices will continue to compete to speed up the clearance of the industry's production capacity.
The bank continued that judging from the photovoltaic industry chain, the competitive pattern of silicon and photovoltaic industries is clear, and leading companies have obvious advantages. In the face of overall losses and deep integration of the industrial chain, it is a competition for the company's comprehensive competitive advantage, including cost, profitability, financial status, and cash flow. Looking at the silicon material side, in combination with the current price of industrial silicon on the cost side, the price of the leading material company has basically re-covered cash costs, and the gross margin is within easy reach; on the photovoltaic glass side, at the current price level, only leading oligopolies can achieve positive profits. Therefore, whether at a low point in the industry or after a subsequent price rebound, leading companies are strong and strong.
The bank said that at present, prices in the photovoltaic industry chain and corporate profits are clearly at the bottom. The subsequent release of terminal demand is expected to gradually drive prices back in the industrial chain. Leading companies can be expected to achieve profits, and it is recommended to focus on industry leaders. Key recommendations for the silicon industry: Xinte Energy (01799), GCL Technology (03800); Key recommendations for the photovoltaic glass industry: Follett Glass (06865) and Xinyi Solar (00968).
