在今晚北京时间20:00德国8月CPI数据公布一小时后，欧洲央行行长拉加德将向欧盟议员发表讲话，这将是她就投资者上周对10月17日再次降息的大量押注发表评论。货币市场目前预计降息的可能性为80%。In Germany, inflation has eased somewhat.
It was learned from Zhitong Finance and Economics that in September, the inflation rates of 6 states in Germany decreased, indicating that the overall data to be released later today will slow down, further pushing for the European Central Bank to cut interest rates in October. Preliminary data released on Monday showed that the CPI of North Rhine-Westphalia, the most populous state in Germany, dropped from 1.7% in August to 1.5%. In Hesse, the CPI growth rate dropped from 1.5% to 1.2%.
Last Friday, inflation data released by France and Spain were both below the European Central Bank's target of 2%. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect Germany's overall inflation rate to reach 1.8%, the first time it has been below 2% since February 2021.
One hour after the release of Germany's August CPI data at 20:00 Beijing time tonight, Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, will address EU lawmakers. This will be her comments on the significant bets from investors last week on a rate cut again on October 17. The current probability of a rate cut in the currency market is 80%.
Bloomberg economist Jamie Rush said: "A survey generally estimates that the overall inflation rate in September will be 1.8%, lower than last month's 2%. Based on the CPI data from various states, Germany's national inflation rate seems to roughly correspond to the above (and our own) predictions. Looking ahead, we expect inflation to rise slightly in the coming months until 2025 due to base effects."
The Ifo Economic Research Institute stated on Monday that fewer and fewer companies in Germany intend to raise prices. In September, Germany's price expectations index dropped from 16.1 to 13.8, the lowest level since February 2021. Timo Wollmershäuser, director of the Ifo Economic Research Institute, said: "The economic crisis is reducing the space for companies to raise prices. Overall, Germany's inflation rate may be below the European Central Bank's target of 2% in the next few months."