根据调查，目前预计2024年全球石油需求将增长90万至120万桶/天，低于此前估计的100万至130万桶/天。Analysts have lowered their forecast for crude oil prices in 2024 for the fifth consecutive month.
Finance and Economics APP learned that according to a survey by Reuters, analysts have lowered their forecast for crude oil prices in 2024 for the fifth consecutive month, due to weak demand and uncertainty over OPEC's plans. Despite geopolitical risks, oil prices are still expected to face pressure. Analysts currently predict the average price of Brent crude oil in 2024 to be $81.52 per barrel, the lowest expectation since February, lower than the August estimate of $82.86. The average price of U.S. crude oil is expected to be $77.64, lower than last month's estimate of $78.82.
Roger Read, Senior Energy Analyst at Wells Fargo & Co, stated: "Part of the recent softening of oil prices is due to market concerns about how and when OPEC will restore crude oil supply, while demand indicators weaken."
According to the survey, global oil demand for 2024 is currently expected to grow by 0.9 million to 1.2 million barrels per day, lower than the previous estimate of 1 million to 1.3 million barrels per day.
Both OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) have lowered their oil demand forecasts, citing a slowdown in demand.
Sehul Bhatt, Director of Market Intelligence and Analysis Research at CRISIL, stated: "Despite geopolitical uncertainty, economic growth slowdown in major economies such as Europe, coupled with expectations of weak demand, is driving oil prices lower."
Most analysts believe that due to ample supply, the war-related oil price risk premium has decreased, but some analysts indicate that if tensions escalate, especially in the Middle East, the premium may rise again.
Amid the tense situation in the Middle East and the push for OPEC+ production cuts, oil prices surged to over $90 per barrel in April. However, due to the trend of weak demand leading to oversupply, oil prices sharply reversed this month, falling below $70 per barrel.
The market expects OPEC+ to proceed with production increases in December as planned, but first, it needs to cut production to address overproduction issues in some member countries.
Mike Haigh, the csi commodity equity index strategist at Industrial Bank of France, stated: "We expect OPEC+ to increase production in December."
"However, given the disappointing demand outlook and rising inventories, oil prices have started to decline, and a full production cut cannot be completely undone."
Currently, OPEC+ is reducing production by 5.86 million barrels per day, approximately 5.7% of global demand. Earlier this month, after oil prices dropped to a 9-month low, OPEC+ postponed its production increase plans.