The Jiangsu Fasten Company Limited (SZSE:000890) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 32%. Not all shareholders will be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down a very disappointing 24% in the last twelve months.
Following the firm bounce in price, when almost half of the companies in China's Metals and Mining industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 1.3x, you may consider Jiangsu Fasten as a stock not worth researching with its 3.5x P/S ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/S.
What Does Jiangsu Fasten's P/S Mean For Shareholders?
For example, consider that Jiangsu Fasten's financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. Perhaps the market believes the company can do enough to outperform the rest of the industry in the near future, which is keeping the P/S ratio high. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.
We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Jiangsu Fasten's earnings, revenue and cash flow.Do Revenue Forecasts Match The High P/S Ratio?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the industry for P/S ratios like Jiangsu Fasten's to be considered reasonable.
Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 25%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk revenue by 8.3% in aggregate. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.
In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 13% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.
In light of this, it's alarming that Jiangsu Fasten's P/S sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.
The Final Word
Jiangsu Fasten's P/S has grown nicely over the last month thanks to a handy boost in the share price. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.
Our examination of Jiangsu Fasten revealed its shrinking revenue over the medium-term isn't resulting in a P/S as low as we expected, given the industry is set to grow. With a revenue decline on investors' minds, the likelihood of a souring sentiment is quite high which could send the P/S back in line with what we'd expect. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.
Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Jiangsu Fasten that you should be aware of.
If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Jiangsu Fasten, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.