Xinyi Solar Holdings Limited (HKG:968) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 38% gain and recovering from prior weakness. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 28% over that time.
Even after such a large jump in price, there still wouldn't be many who think Xinyi Solar Holdings' price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 7.9x is worth a mention when the median P/E in Hong Kong is similar at about 10x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/E without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.
Recent times have been advantageous for Xinyi Solar Holdings as its earnings have been rising faster than most other companies. It might be that many expect the strong earnings performance to wane, which has kept the P/E from rising. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.
What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/E?
Xinyi Solar Holdings' P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the market.
Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew earnings per share by an impressive 44% last year. Still, incredibly EPS has fallen 26% in total from three years ago, which is quite disappointing. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.
Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 15% each year as estimated by the analysts watching the company. That's shaping up to be materially higher than the 12% per year growth forecast for the broader market.
In light of this, it's curious that Xinyi Solar Holdings' P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently some shareholders are skeptical of the forecasts and have been accepting lower selling prices.
The Final Word
Xinyi Solar Holdings' stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/E level with the market. We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.
Our examination of Xinyi Solar Holdings' analyst forecasts revealed that its superior earnings outlook isn't contributing to its P/E as much as we would have predicted. There could be some unobserved threats to earnings preventing the P/E ratio from matching the positive outlook. It appears some are indeed anticipating earnings instability, because these conditions should normally provide a boost to the share price.
There are also other vital risk factors to consider before investing and we've discovered 1 warning sign for Xinyi Solar Holdings that you should be aware of.
If you're unsure about the strength of Xinyi Solar Holdings' business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.