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What Fujian Nebula Electronics Co., Ltd.'s (SZSE:300648) 28% Share Price Gain Is Not Telling You

Simply Wall St ·  Oct 1 06:25

Fujian Nebula Electronics Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300648) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 28% gain in the last month alone. But the gains over the last month weren't enough to make shareholders whole, as the share price is still down 7.9% in the last twelve months.

Since its price has surged higher, when almost half of the companies in China's Electrical industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 2.1x, you may consider Fujian Nebula Electronics as a stock probably not worth researching with its 3.4x P/S ratio. However, the P/S might be high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

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SZSE:300648 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry September 30th 2024

What Does Fujian Nebula Electronics' P/S Mean For Shareholders?

For example, consider that Fujian Nebula Electronics' financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. One possibility is that the P/S is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Fujian Nebula Electronics' earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The High P/S Ratio?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should outperform the industry for P/S ratios like Fujian Nebula Electronics' to be considered reasonable.

In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 15%. Still, the latest three year period has seen an excellent 43% overall rise in revenue, in spite of its unsatisfying short-term performance. Accordingly, while they would have preferred to keep the run going, shareholders would definitely welcome the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 23% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is weaker, based on recent medium-term annualised revenue results.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that Fujian Nebula Electronics' P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

Fujian Nebula Electronics' P/S is on the rise since its shares have risen strongly. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

Our examination of Fujian Nebula Electronics revealed its poor three-year revenue trends aren't detracting from the P/S as much as we though, given they look worse than current industry expectations. When we observe slower-than-industry revenue growth alongside a high P/S ratio, we assume there to be a significant risk of the share price decreasing, which would result in a lower P/S ratio. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these the share price as being reasonable.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Fujian Nebula Electronics (of which 2 don't sit too well with us!) you should know about.

If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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