鲍威尔指出，美联储的政策并未沿着预设路径前进，且经济风险存在“双向性”。受此影响，美元兑一篮子主要货币走强，美国国债收益率攀升。投资者预计，美联储在11月份降息四分之一个百分点的可能性为65%，而不是再次大幅降息半个百分点。Due to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reducing market expectations for further significant rate cuts, the Canadian dollar edged lower against the US dollar on Monday. However, the Canadian dollar still maintained most of its quarterly gains.
The Canadian dollar fell 0.1% against the US dollar on Monday, to 1.3530, or 73.91 US cents, previously touching the lowest level since September 24 of 1.3537. In September, the Canadian dollar fell 0.3%, but still rose 1.1% in the third quarter. On Tuesday (October 1) during the Asian session, the US dollar against the Canadian dollar traded in a narrow range around 1.3525, slightly lower than the nearly one-week high of 1.3537 reached overnight.
Amol Sahota, head of Klarity FX, stated that the weakness of the Canadian dollar on Monday was "mainly related to the strength of the US dollar" as investors reassess the possibility of the Federal Reserve taking more significant rate cuts before the year-end.
Powell pointed out that the Federal Reserve's policy is not progressing along the preset path, and that economic risks are 'two-sided.' As a result, the US dollar strengthened against a basket of major currencies, and US Treasury yields rose. Investors expect a 65% chance of a quarter-point rate cut by the Fed in November, rather than another large half-point rate cut.
Data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission last Friday showed that speculators' bearish bets on the Canadian dollar fell to the lowest level since April. As of September 24, net short positions in contracts decreased from 73,150 contracts the previous week to 65,589 contracts.
Meanwhile, concerns about soft global demand offset worries about the Middle East situation, causing the price of Canada's major export product, oil, to fall 1 cent to $68.17 per barrel on Monday.
Additionally, due to the failure to reach an agreement in new contract negotiations, union workers at two terminals in the port of Montreal initiated a three-day strike. The Canadian bond market was closed due to National Truth and Reconciliation Day.
