In the morning session of October 1st, attention should be paid to the following three points.

Policy expectations towards the Ishiba administration are once again growing.

Shimamura, 2Q operating profit increased by 4.1% to 31.4 billion yen.

Morning session highlights: Citizen Watch, the group's machinery, will renew the U.S.-exclusive automatic lathe and expand globally from June of next year.

Policy expectations towards the Ishiba administration are once again growing.

In the Japanese stock market on the 1st, after an initial round of buying, there is a sense of stalemate, yet the buying interest of waiting for corrections seems strong. On September 30th, the U.S. market saw the NY Dow rise by 17 points, and Nasdaq up by 69 points. Due to the unexpectedly improved Chicago Purchasing Managers Index in September, buying dominated, but after Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board (FRB), hinted at a slight pace of rate cuts in his speech, there was a momentary sharp shift to selling due to disappointment. However, after the selling pressure eased, there were repurchases towards the end of the session, setting new record highs consecutively. The Chicago Nikkei 225 futures settlement price was at 38,115 yen, 185 yen higher than Osaka. The yen rate is hovering around 143.50 yen to the dollar.

The Nikkei average stock price is expected to start on a buying trend due to the adjustment to Chicago futures. In the U.S., the expectation for a significant 0.5% rate cut following Powell's comments has diminished, but there is an understanding that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will cut rates by 0.25% at the two remaining meetings this year, thus avoiding a downturn in the U.S. economy. The strength of buying interest on corrections was being noted.

Yesterday, the Nikkei average stock price dropped by over 1900 yen, mainly due to profit-taking following the sharp rise incorporating the reaction to Chief Cabinet Secretary Nikai's critical stance on the Bank of Japan's rate hikes during the LDP presidential election. The movement aimed to unwind excessively bought positions, likely completing the adjustment of supply and demand. On the other hand, the potential for renewed high expectations towards the Ishiba administration might encourage a stance of waiting for corrections.

The Nikkei 225 futures ended the night session at 38,210 yen, 280 yen higher than the daytime session. There were moments when it was sold down to 37,860 yen, but it generally moved in a narrow range around 38,000 yen, showing a firm bottom. The yen exchange rate is moving around 143 yen per dollar, and it is believed that the rebalancing movements in the futures market and the exchange market have completed one cycle.

Yesterday's Nikkei average stock price was seen falling below 37,800 yen at one point, but the 25-day and 200-day moving averages are likely to be considered as support levels. As the previous week's gains were wiped out at once, it seems to be a timing for a fresh start. While the aggressive upward movement may be limited, amid rising policy expectations, it is considered a level where buying positions are likely to accumulate.

■ Shimamura, 2Q operating profit increased by 4.1% to 31.4 billion yen

Shimamura <8227> announced its performance for the second quarter of the fiscal year ending February 2025, with revenue increasing by 4.3% year-on-year to 330.5 billion 95 million yen, and operating profit increasing by 4.1% to 31.4 billion 4 million yen. Slightly surpassing the consensus (around 30 billion yen). Expanding the lineup of in-house developed brands and jointly developed brands with suppliers to evolve brand power. Promoting the expansion of high-priced products in both brands, with strong performance in the "FIBER DRY" series of undergarments and outerwear using natural materials.

Materials of concern in the morning session

The NY Dow rose (42,330.15, +17.15).

The Nasdaq Composite Index rose (18,189.17, +69.58).

- Monthly labor statistics (July)

The Chicago Nikkei Futures rose (38,115, +185 compared to Osaka).

The VIX index decreased (16.73, -0.23).

Expectations for inflation to ease in the US.

Active share buybacks

Request for improvement in corporate value by the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

Citizen Watch Co., Ltd. <7762> Group is revamping its machinery with a dedicated automatic lathe for the United States, set to launch globally from June next year.

Toyota Motor Corporation <7203> intensifies its 'sitting together activities' to enhance on-site improvements in collaboration with suppliers.

ENEOS <5020> begins operation of a new plant for demonstrating synthetic fuel manufacturing.

・Mitsubishi Chemical Group <4188> reduces coke production, sells subsidiary shares to Kyoei Steel.

・Fujifilm <4901> to invest 20 billion yen in semiconductor material equipment, expanding domestic supply.

・Rohm <6963> considering collaboration with Denso, for stable supply and development of semiconductors.

・Sumitomo Forestry <1911> acquires major Australian residence company for 11.3 billion yen.

・Rakuten Group <4755> considering capital alliance with Mizuho Financial Group for Rakuten Card.

・Daiken <6622> acquires U.S. SIer, strengthens proposal of welding robots for cars.

・Marubeni <8002> jointly holding ammonia transport ship with Norwegian company in joint venture.

・Proto Corporation <4298> partners with cloud drone, offers used car loans on Goo-net from this month.

Kubota <6326> accelerates sales of small construction machinery in Thailand, leveraging agricultural machinery sales network.

Laser Tech <6920> develops high-speed defect detection equipment for surface and internal defects, for SiC wafers.

JGC Holdings <1963> jointly awarded basic design, LNG plant for Mozambique peak.

NEC <6701> conducts traffic volume survey with NTT and IOWN, leveraging optical fiber network.

Mitsubishi Electric <6503> mass producing power semiconductor chips with 12-inch wafers.

Sumitomo Chemical <4005> acquires majority stake, leading the operation of regenerative and cell medicine development and manufacturing consignment business.

Tokyo Electric Power Holdings <9501> delays in root cause analysis, interrupting debris extraction tests at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant.

Kajima Corporation <1812> achieves 70% reduction in construction period, introducing floor panel replacement system in actual construction projects for the first time.

・Asahi Kasei <3407> to improve the safety performance of EVs, using flame-resistant fibers in battery materials

・Daicel <4202> to implement organic synthesis into society, in collaboration with Hokkaido University's emerging technologies

・Toyo Construction <1890> to develop coal ash mixture with Tokyo Power Techno and others, for verification in two areas including Fukuoka

☆ Schedule of events in the morning session

・08:30 August job openings-to-applicants ratio (Forecast: 1.24 times, July: 1.24 times)

・08:30 August unemployment rate (Forecast: 2.6%, July: 2.7%)

・08:50 September BOJ Tankan Large manufacturers' business conditions DI (Forecast: +12, June: +13)

・08:50 September Survey Bank of Japan Tankan - Large Enterprise Non-Manufacturing Business Situation DI (Forecast: +32, June: +33)

・08:50 September Survey Bank of Japan Tankan - Large Enterprise Total Industry Equipment Investment (year-on-year forecast: +11.9%, June: +11.0%)

・08:50 Key Opinions at the Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting (September 19-20)

・10:30 Australian Retail Sales in August (month-on-month forecast: +0.4%, July: 0.0%)