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A Look At The Fair Value Of Zhongxing Shenyang Commercial Building Group Co.,Ltd (SZSE:000715)

A Look At The Fair Value Of Zhongxing Shenyang Commercial Building Group Co.,Ltd (SZSE:000715)

中兴商业集团股份有限公司(SZSE:000715)的公平价值研究
Simply Wall St ·  09/30 21:51

Key Insights

主要见解

  • Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Zhongxing Shenyang Commercial Building GroupLtd fair value estimate is CN¥4.95
  • Zhongxing Shenyang Commercial Building GroupLtd's CN¥5.93 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate
  • Zhongxing Shenyang Commercial Building GroupLtd's peers seem to be trading at a higher premium to fair value based onthe industry average of -389%
  • 使用二阶段自由现金流向股东法,中兴商业有限公司的公允价值估计为人民币4.95元。
  • 中兴商业有限公司的人民币5.93元股价表明其交易水平与公允价值估算相似。
  • 根据行业平均值,中兴商业有限公司的同行似乎以较高溢价交易,溢价水平为-389%。

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Zhongxing Shenyang Commercial Building Group Co.,Ltd (SZSE:000715) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.

在本文中,我们将通过预期未来现金流量并将它们贴现到今天的价值来估算中兴商业有限公司(SZSE:000715)的内在价值。 这次我们将使用现金流折现(DCF)模型。尽管可能看起来相当复杂,但实际上并没有那么难。

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

我们通常认为,一家公司的价值是其未来所有现金流的现值之和。然而,DCF仅是众多估值指标之一,它并非没有缺陷。对于那些热衷于股权分析的学习者来说,在这里,Simply Wall St分析模型可能值得一提。

The Model

模型

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

我们使用二阶段增长模型,就是考虑公司增长的两个阶段。在初始期间,公司可能具有更高的增长率,第二阶段通常被认为有稳定的增长率。首先,我们需要估计未来十年的现金流量。鉴于没有自由现金流的分析师预测可供我们使用,因此我们需要从公司上次报告的自由现金流(FCF)中推断先前的自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设自由现金流下降的公司将减缓下降速度,而自由现金流增长的公司将在此期间看到其增长率减缓。我们这样做是为了反映出增长趋势在早期的减速比后期更加明显。

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

DCF的核心概念是未来的每一美元都比现在的每一美元更不值钱,因此我们将这些未来的现金流贴现到当今的价值:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

10年自由现金流(FCF)预测

2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) CN¥127.1m CN¥120.1m CN¥116.5m CN¥115.0m CN¥115.0m CN¥116.0m CN¥117.7m CN¥119.9m CN¥122.5m CN¥125.4m
Growth Rate Estimate Source Est @ -9.08% Est @ -5.50% Est @ -3.00% Est @ -1.24% Est @ -0.02% Est @ 0.84% Est @ 1.45% Est @ 1.87% Est @ 2.16% Est @ 2.37%
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 7.8% CN¥118 CN¥103 CN¥93.1 CN¥85.3 CN¥79.2 CN¥74.1 CN¥69.8 CN¥66.0 CN¥62.5 CN¥59.4
2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034
杠杆自由现金流量(人民币,百万) 人民币127.1百万元 人民币120.1百万元 人民币116.5百万 115.0百万人民币 115.0百万人民币 自由现金流为CN¥116.0m 117.7 万元人民币 119.9 万元人民币 122.5 万元人民币 125.4百万人民币
增长率估计来源 Est @ -9.08% 估值为-3.13% 预计为-3.00%时的价值。 @-1.24%的估算 预计增长率为-0.02% 按0.84%估算 估值1.45% @ 1.87%的预期增长率下的估值 预计 @ 2.16% 上涨2.37%
现值(人民币,百万)按 7.8% 折现 人民币118元 CN¥103 10年现金流的现值(PVCF)=人民币1.1亿×(1+g)÷(r-g)=人民币165万元×(1+2.9%)÷(7.4%-2.9%)=人民币3.7亿。 CN¥85.3 79.2人民币 74.1人民币 69.8人民币 66.0人民币 人民币62.5 人民币59.4

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥811m

("Est" = Simply Wall St 估计的自由现金流增长率)
未来十年现金流的现值(PVCF)= 人民币811百万

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.9%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.8%.

现在我们需要计算终值,该值考虑了这十年期间之后所有未来现金流。 Gordon Growth公式用于按未来年增长率(等于10年政府债券收益率5年平均值2.9%)计算终值。我们以7.8%的权益成本将终值现金流贴现至今值。

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥125m× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (7.8%– 2.9%) = CN¥2.6b

终端价值(TV)= FCF2034 ×(1 + g)÷(r - g)= 人民币125百万 ×(1 + 2.9%)÷(7.8%– 2.9%)= 人民币2.6十亿

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥2.6b÷ ( 1 + 7.8%)10= CN¥1.2b

终值的现值(PVTV)= TV /(1 + r)10= 人民币2.6十亿÷ (1 + 7.8%)10= 人民币1.2十亿

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥2.1b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of CN¥5.9, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

总价值,或者股权价值,是未来现金流的现值之和,本例中为人民币21亿。最后一步是将权益价值除以未来现金流的数量。与当前股价人民币5.9相比,在撰写本文时,公司似乎在公平价值附近。任何计算中的假设都会对估值产生重大影响,因此最好将其视为粗略估算,不必精确到最后一分钱。

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SZSE:000715 Discounted Cash Flow October 1st 2024
深圳证券交易所:000715 折现现金流 2024年10月1日

The Assumptions

假设

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Zhongxing Shenyang Commercial Building GroupLtd as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.8%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.984. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

现在对于折现现金流最重要的输入是折现率,当然,还有实际现金流。投资的一部分是对公司未来表现进行自己评估,因此,请尝试自行计算并检查自己的假设。折现现金流模型也不考虑行业可能的周期性,也不考虑公司未来的资本需求,因此不能完全展示公司的潜在绩效。鉴于我们正在考虑中兴沈阳商业大厦集团作为潜在股东,因此使用的权益成本作为折现率,而不是资本成本(或资本加权平均成本,WACC),后者考虑到了债务。在此计算中,我们使用了7.8%,这是基于一个杠杆β值为0.984。β值是股票波动性的度量,与整个市场相比。我们的β值来自全球可比公司的行业平均β值,设定在0.8到2.0之间的范围,这是稳定业务的合理区间。

Moving On:

接下来:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Zhongxing Shenyang Commercial Building GroupLtd, we've put together three additional factors you should assess:

尽管重要,贴现现金流量法计算只是评估公司时需要考虑的诸多因素之一。DCF模型并不是投资估值的全部和唯一。最好采用不同案例和假设,并查看它们对公司估值的影响。例如,公司权益成本或无风险利率的变化可能会显著影响估值。对于中兴商业有限公司,我们已经整理了另外三个您应该评估的因素:

  1. Risks: Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Zhongxing Shenyang Commercial Building GroupLtd (of which 1 shouldn't be ignored!) you should know about.
  2. Future Earnings: How does 000715's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
  1. 风险:每家公司都有风险,我们已经发现中兴商业有限公司存在两个预警信号(其中有一个不容忽视!)您应该了解。
  2. 未来收益:000715的增长率如何与同行和整个市场相比?通过与我们的免费分析师增长预期图表进行互动,深入了解未来几年的分析师共识数据。
  3. 其他高质量选择:你喜欢一个好的多面手吗?浏览我们的高质量股票交互列表,了解还有哪些你可能错过的好东西!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Chinese stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

PS. Simply Wall St每天都会更新其所覆盖的每只中国股票的DCF计算,因此,如果您想找到任何其他股票的内在价值,只需在此搜索即可。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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这篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我们根据历史数据和分析师预测提供评论,只使用公正的方法论,我们的文章并不意味着提供任何金融建议。文章不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也不考虑您的目标或您的财务状况。我们的目标是带给您基本数据驱动的长期关注分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St没有任何股票头寸。

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