We Think Tonghua Dongbao Pharmaceutical (SHSE:600867) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt
We Think Tonghua Dongbao Pharmaceutical (SHSE:600867) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies Tonghua Dongbao Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600867) makes use of debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
伯克希尔哈撒韦的查理·芒格支持的外部基金经理李录在谈到投资风险时毫不掩饰,他说:“最大的投资风险不是价格波动,而是你是否会遭受永久性资本损失。” 讨论公司风险时,我们总是喜欢看它的负债使用情况,因为负债过多可能导致灭亡。 与许多其他公司一样,通化东宝药业股份有限公司(SHSE:600867)正在利用债务。 但更重要的问题是:这些债务产生了多少风险?
When Is Debt A Problem?
什么时候负债才是一个问题?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
债务是帮助企业发展的工具,但如果一家企业无法偿还其贷款人,那么它就处于贷款人的支配下。在最坏的情况下,如果一家公司无法偿还其债权人,它就可能破产。虽然这不太常见,但我们经常看到负债公司永久性地稀释股东,因为贷款人强制它们以低于市价的价格募集资本。话虽如此,最常见的情况是公司合理地管理其债务,这对其本身是有利的。在考虑企业使用多少债务时,首先要做的是看其现金和债务是否合理。
What Is Tonghua Dongbao Pharmaceutical's Net Debt?
通化东宝药业的净债务是多少?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of June 2024 Tonghua Dongbao Pharmaceutical had CN¥359.0m of debt, an increase on CN¥70.0m, over one year. But on the other hand it also has CN¥512.4m in cash, leading to a CN¥153.4m net cash position.
您可以点击下面的图形查看历史数据,截至2024年6月,通化东宝药业的债务为35900万人民币,比去年增加7000万人民币。 另一方面,它也有51240万人民币的现金,导致净现金头寸为15340万人民币。
How Strong Is Tonghua Dongbao Pharmaceutical's Balance Sheet?
通化东宝制药的资产负债表有多强?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Tonghua Dongbao Pharmaceutical had liabilities of CN¥406.8m due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥141.5m falling due after that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥512.4m as well as receivables valued at CN¥614.8m due within 12 months. So it can boast CN¥578.9m more liquid assets than total liabilities.
最新的资产负债表数据显示,通化东宝制药有短期到期的人民币40680万的负债,以及之后到期的人民币14150万的负债。 抵消这些义务的是,它持有的现金为人民币51240万,以及价值人民币61480万的应收账款将在12个月内到期。 所以它可以自豪地拥有比总负债多57890万的流动资产。
This surplus suggests that Tonghua Dongbao Pharmaceutical has a conservative balance sheet, and could probably eliminate its debt without much difficulty. Simply put, the fact that Tonghua Dongbao Pharmaceutical has more cash than debt is arguably a good indication that it can manage its debt safely.
这一盈余表明通化东宝制药拥有保守的资产负债表,很可能可以轻松清偿债务。 简而言之,通化东宝制药拥有比债务还要多的现金可能是一个良好的迹象,表明其可以安全地管理债务。
In fact Tonghua Dongbao Pharmaceutical's saving grace is its low debt levels, because its EBIT has tanked 23% in the last twelve months. Falling earnings (if the trend continues) could eventually make even modest debt quite risky. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Tonghua Dongbao Pharmaceutical can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
事实上,通化东宝制药的救命稻草是其低债务水平,因为其EBIt在过去十二个月下跌了23%。 利润下降(如果这一趋势持续)最终可能使即使是小额债务变得相当风险。 在分析债务水平时,资产负债表是明显的起点。 但最终,业务未来的盈利能力将决定通化东宝制药是否能够随时间加强其资产负债表。 因此,如果您想了解专业人士的看法,您可能会发现对分析师利润预测的免费报告很有趣。
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. Tonghua Dongbao Pharmaceutical may have net cash on the balance sheet, but it is still interesting to look at how well the business converts its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, because that will influence both its need for, and its capacity to manage debt. Looking at the most recent three years, Tonghua Dongbao Pharmaceutical recorded free cash flow of 32% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.
但是我们的最终考虑也很重要,因为一家公司不能用纸面利润支付债务;它需要即冷又硬的现金。 通化东宝制药的资产负债表上可能有净现金,但查看业务将其盈利(利息及税前利润(EBIt))转换为自由现金流的能力会很有意思,因为这将影响其管理债务的需求和能力。 查看最近的三年,通化东宝制药自由现金流占其 EBIt 的比例为32%,这比我们预期的要弱。 这在还债时不是好迹象。
Summing Up
总之
While it is always sensible to investigate a company's debt, in this case Tonghua Dongbao Pharmaceutical has CN¥153.4m in net cash and a decent-looking balance sheet. So we don't have any problem with Tonghua Dongbao Pharmaceutical's use of debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example Tonghua Dongbao Pharmaceutical has 3 warning signs (and 1 which is a bit unpleasant) we think you should know about.
虽然调查公司的债务是明智的,但在这种情况下,通化东宝药业拥有15340万人民币的净现金和一张看起来不错的资产负债表。所以我们对通化东宝药业的债务使用没有任何问题。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表是显而易见的起点。但最终,每家公司都可能存在超出资产负债表范围的风险。例如,通化东宝药业有3个警示信号(还有一个有点不愉快),我们认为您应该知道。
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
如果您有兴趣投资能够在不负债的情况下增长利润的企业,请查看这份免费列表,其中列出了在资产负债表上拥有净现金的成长型企业。
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