Despite an already strong run, X Financial (NYSE:XYF) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 34% in the last thirty days. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 72% in the last year.
Although its price has surged higher, it would still be understandable if you think X Financial is a stock with good investment prospects with a price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") of 0.4x, considering almost half the companies in the United States' Consumer Finance industry have P/S ratios above 1.4x. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the reduced P/S.
How X Financial Has Been Performing
Revenue has risen firmly for X Financial recently, which is pleasing to see. One possibility is that the P/S is low because investors think this respectable revenue growth might actually underperform the broader industry in the near future. If that doesn't eventuate, then existing shareholders have reason to be optimistic about the future direction of the share price.
Although there are no analyst estimates available for X Financial, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.Do Revenue Forecasts Match The Low P/S Ratio?
In order to justify its P/S ratio, X Financial would need to produce sluggish growth that's trailing the industry.
If we review the last year of revenue growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 27%. The strong recent performance means it was also able to grow revenue by 66% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have definitely welcomed those medium-term rates of revenue growth.
This is in contrast to the rest of the industry, which is expected to grow by 32% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.
With this in consideration, it's easy to understand why X Financial's P/S falls short of the mark set by its industry peers. Apparently many shareholders weren't comfortable holding on to something they believe will continue to trail the wider industry.
What We Can Learn From X Financial's P/S?
Despite X Financial's share price climbing recently, its P/S still lags most other companies. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
Our examination of X Financial confirms that the company's revenue trends over the past three-year years are a key factor in its low price-to-sales ratio, as we suspected, given they fall short of current industry expectations. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/S as they concede future revenue probably won't provide any pleasant surprises. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it's hard to see the share price experience a reversal of fortunes anytime soon.
Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 2 warning signs for X Financial that you should be aware of.
It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.