Positive Earnings Growth Hasn't Been Enough to Get Zhejiang Qianjiang Biochemical (SHSE:600796) Shareholders a Favorable Return Over the Last Three Years
Positive Earnings Growth Hasn't Been Enough to Get Zhejiang Qianjiang Biochemical (SHSE:600796) Shareholders a Favorable Return Over the Last Three Years
Zhejiang Qianjiang Biochemical Co., Ltd (SHSE:600796) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 15% in the last month. But that cannot eclipse the less-than-impressive returns over the last three years. Truth be told the share price declined 20% in three years and that return, Dear Reader, falls short of what you could have got from passive investing with an index fund.
錢江生化股份有限公司(SHSE:600796)的股東應該很高興看到股價在過去一個月上漲了15%。但不能掩蓋過去三年來低於預期的回報。坦率地說,股價在三年內下跌了20%,這一回報,親愛的讀者,較無法達到通過指數基金 passively investing 可獲得的回報。
While the last three years has been tough for Zhejiang Qianjiang Biochemical shareholders, this past week has shown signs of promise. So let's look at the longer term fundamentals and see if they've been the driver of the negative returns.
儘管過去三年對錢江生化股東來說是艱難的,但過去一週顯示出了希望的跡象。因此,讓我們看一下更長期的基本面,看看它們是否導致了負回報。
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
不可否認的是,市場有時是高效的,但價格並不總是反映潛在的商業表現。一個不完美但簡單的方法來考慮公司市場感知如何改變是比較每股收益(EPS)變化和股價變動。
During the unfortunate three years of share price decline, Zhejiang Qianjiang Biochemical actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 6.8% per year. This is quite a puzzle, and suggests there might be something temporarily buoying the share price. Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.
在不幸的三年股價下跌期間,錢江生化實際上看到每股收益(EPS)年均增長6.8%。這是一個謎,表明股價可能有暫時支撐。另外,過去可能對增長預期不切實際。
Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.
由於EPS的變化似乎與股價的變化不相關,因此值得查看其他指標。
With a rather small yield of just 0.6% we doubt that the stock's share price is based on its dividend. We think that the revenue decline over three years, at a rate of 8.2% per year, probably had some shareholders looking to sell. And that's not surprising, since it seems unlikely that EPS growth can continue for long in the absence of revenue growth.
以僅有0.6%的相對較小收益率來看,我們懷疑這支股票的股價並非基於其股利。我們認爲,在過去三年中,營業收入以每年8.2%的速度下降,可能導致一些股東打算出售。這並不奇怪,因爲在沒有營業收入增長的情況下,很難相信每股收益的增長還會持續很久。
You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
你可以在下面的圖片中看到收入和營業收入隨時間的變化情況(單擊圖表可查看精確值)。
Take a more thorough look at Zhejiang Qianjiang Biochemical's financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.
通過這份免費報告,更全面地了解浙江錢江生化的財務健康狀況。
What About Dividends?
那麼分紅怎麼樣呢?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Zhejiang Qianjiang Biochemical, it has a TSR of -17% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
在考慮投資回報時,重要的是要考慮總股東回報(TSR)和股價回報之間的差異。TSR是一個回報計算,考慮到現金股利的價值(假設任何接收的股利都已再投資)以及任何折現的增資和拆分的計算價值。因此,對於支付豐厚股利的公司,TSR通常比股價回報高得多。在浙江錢江生化的情況下,過去3年的TSR爲-17%。這超過了我們之前提到的股價回報。公司支付的股利因此提升了總股東回報。
A Different Perspective
不同的觀點
Zhejiang Qianjiang Biochemical shareholders are down 11% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 3.3%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 0.1% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Zhejiang Qianjiang Biochemical (of which 1 is significant!) you should know about.
錢江生化股東今年收益下降了11%(包括分紅派息),而市場本身上漲了3.3%。即使好股票的股價有時也會下跌,但我們希望在對一個業務的基本指標出現改善之前不要過於感興趣。遺憾的是,去年的表現結束了一段糟糕的時期,股東在過去五年中每年面臨總損失0.1%。一般來說,長期股價疲軟可能是一個不好的跡象,儘管逆向投資者可能希望研究這支股票,期待逆轉。雖然值得考慮市場狀況對股價的不同影響,但還有更重要的因素,比如風險。每家公司都有風險,而我們已發現錢江生化有2個警示信號(其中1個是重要的!)您應該知道。
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: many of them are unnoticed AND have attractive valuation).
如果您喜歡與管理層一起購買股票,那麼您可能會喜歡這個公司的免費列表。 (提示:其中許多公司不爲人注意且具有吸引力的估值。)
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
請注意,本文引用的市場回報反映了目前在中國交易所上市的股票的市場加權平均回報。
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對本文有任何反饋?對內容有任何疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。