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Positive Earnings Growth Hasn't Been Enough to Get Zhejiang Qianjiang Biochemical (SHSE:600796) Shareholders a Favorable Return Over the Last Three Years

Positive Earnings Growth Hasn't Been Enough to Get Zhejiang Qianjiang Biochemical (SHSE:600796) Shareholders a Favorable Return Over the Last Three Years

在过去三年里,正面的盈利增长还不足以让钱江生化(SHSE:600796)的股东获得良好的回报
Simply Wall St ·  10/01 18:19

Zhejiang Qianjiang Biochemical Co., Ltd (SHSE:600796) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 15% in the last month. But that cannot eclipse the less-than-impressive returns over the last three years. Truth be told the share price declined 20% in three years and that return, Dear Reader, falls short of what you could have got from passive investing with an index fund.

钱江生化股份有限公司(SHSE:600796)的股东应该很高兴看到股价在过去一个月上涨了15%。但不能掩盖过去三年来低于预期的回报。坦率地说,股价在三年内下跌了20%,这一回报,亲爱的读者,较无法达到通过指数基金 passively investing 可获得的回报。

While the last three years has been tough for Zhejiang Qianjiang Biochemical shareholders, this past week has shown signs of promise. So let's look at the longer term fundamentals and see if they've been the driver of the negative returns.

尽管过去三年对钱江生化股东来说是艰难的,但过去一周显示出了希望的迹象。因此,让我们看一下更长期的基本面,看看它们是否导致了负回报。

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

不可否认的是,市场有时是高效的,但价格并不总是反映潜在的商业表现。一个不完美但简单的方法来考虑公司市场感知如何改变是比较每股收益(EPS)变化和股价变动。

During the unfortunate three years of share price decline, Zhejiang Qianjiang Biochemical actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 6.8% per year. This is quite a puzzle, and suggests there might be something temporarily buoying the share price. Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.

在不幸的三年股价下跌期间,钱江生化实际上看到每股收益(EPS)年均增长6.8%。这是一个谜,表明股价可能有暂时支撑。另外,过去可能对增长预期不切实际。

Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

由于EPS的变化似乎与股价的变化不相关,因此值得查看其他指标。

With a rather small yield of just 0.6% we doubt that the stock's share price is based on its dividend. We think that the revenue decline over three years, at a rate of 8.2% per year, probably had some shareholders looking to sell. And that's not surprising, since it seems unlikely that EPS growth can continue for long in the absence of revenue growth.

以仅有0.6%的相对较小收益率来看,我们怀疑这支股票的股价并非基于其股利。我们认为,在过去三年中,营业收入以每年8.2%的速度下降,可能导致一些股东打算出售。这并不奇怪,因为在没有营业收入增长的情况下,很难相信每股收益的增长还会持续很久。

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

你可以在下面的图片中看到收入和营业收入随时间的变化情况(单击图表可查看精确值)。

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SHSE:600796 Earnings and Revenue Growth October 1st 2024
SHSE:600796 2024年10月1日的收入和营收增长

Take a more thorough look at Zhejiang Qianjiang Biochemical's financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.

通过这份免费报告,更全面地了解浙江钱江生化的财务健康状况。

What About Dividends?

那么分红怎么样呢?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Zhejiang Qianjiang Biochemical, it has a TSR of -17% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

在考虑投资回报时,重要的是要考虑总股东回报(TSR)和股价回报之间的差异。TSR是一个回报计算,考虑到现金股利的价值(假设任何接收的股利都已再投资)以及任何折现的增资和拆分的计算价值。因此,对于支付丰厚股利的公司,TSR通常比股价回报高得多。在浙江钱江生化的情况下,过去3年的TSR为-17%。这超过了我们之前提到的股价回报。公司支付的股利因此提升了总股东回报。

A Different Perspective

不同的观点

Zhejiang Qianjiang Biochemical shareholders are down 11% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 3.3%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 0.1% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Zhejiang Qianjiang Biochemical (of which 1 is significant!) you should know about.

钱江生化股东今年收益下降了11%(包括分红派息),而市场本身上涨了3.3%。即使好股票的股价有时也会下跌,但我们希望在对一个业务的基本指标出现改善之前不要过于感兴趣。遗憾的是,去年的表现结束了一段糟糕的时期,股东在过去五年中每年面临总损失0.1%。一般来说,长期股价疲软可能是一个不好的迹象,尽管逆向投资者可能希望研究这支股票,期待逆转。虽然值得考虑市场状况对股价的不同影响,但还有更重要的因素,比如风险。每家公司都有风险,而我们已发现钱江生化有2个警示信号(其中1个是重要的!)您应该知道。

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: many of them are unnoticed AND have attractive valuation).

如果您喜欢与管理层一起购买股票,那么您可能会喜欢这个公司的免费列表。 (提示:其中许多公司不为人注意且具有吸引力的估值。)

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.

请注意,本文引用的市场回报反映了目前在中国交易所上市的股票的市场加权平均回报。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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这篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我们根据历史数据和分析师预测提供评论,只使用公正的方法论,我们的文章并不意味着提供任何金融建议。文章不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也不考虑您的目标或您的财务状况。我们的目标是带给您基本数据驱动的长期关注分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St没有任何股票头寸。

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