德拉霍在最近的一份报告中写道，按照瑞银的标准，美国经济已经进入了另一个“咆哮的20年代”。UBS Group believes that the US economy is gradually approaching the “roaring 20s” scenario of the last century, and there is a 50% chance that a booming economic cycle is imminent.
The term “roaring 20s” can be traced back to the same decade a century ago, when large-scale economic growth fueled the construction boom and family life became more and more affluent. At the time, the average person probably wasn't aware of their luck, and this is the phenomenon the US is currently in, wrote Jason Draho (Jason Draho), head of asset allocation at UBS America.
Although economists are concerned that the unemployment rate may rise, the economy recession, or stagflation, Delahoe believes that for Americans, the balance will only lean towards a boom period.
Draho wrote in a recent report that according to UBS standards, the US economy has entered another “roaring 20s.”
He said, “It is neither too early nor optimistic to say that America will experience the 'roaring 20s' economy. This is already the case by our standards; the relevant question is whether these conditions will continue, not whether they will become a reality.
“The possibility of this bull market scenario continues to rise, and many recent developments in demand side, supply side, and monetary policy are supportive.”
He added that investors are increasingly agreeing on a soft landing for the US economy.
A September survey of 37 economists conducted by the Financial Times found that most people do not expect the economy to shrink in the next few years.
The survey and its optimistic outlook were carried out before the Federal Reserve expected to cut interest rates last month. Since then, the market has viewed the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rebalancing the unemployment rate, thereby ensuring the level of productivity and economic activity.
Draho added: “Judging from current trends, it's likely that by early 2025, only the most pessimistic investors will need to wear rosy eyes to see a clear path to the 'Roaring 20s'.”
