Is Jinlong Machinery & ElectronicLtd (SZSE:300032) Using Debt In A Risky Way?
Is Jinlong Machinery & ElectronicLtd (SZSE:300032) Using Debt In A Risky Way?
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We can see that Jinlong Machinery & Electronic Co.,Ltd (SZSE:300032) does use debt in its business. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
霍華德·馬克斯說得好,與其擔心股價波動,'我擔心的風險是永久性虧損...我認識的每個實際投資者都在擔心這個。'當我們考慮一家公司的風險性時,我們總是喜歡看看它的債務使用情況,因爲債務過載可能導致災難。我們可以看到金龍機電股份有限公司(SZSE:300032)在業務中使用了債務。但這筆債務會讓股東擔憂嗎?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
債務帶來了什麼風險?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
通常而言,當公司無法輕鬆償還債務時,債務才會成爲一個真正的問題,要麼通過增加資本,要麼通過自身現金流。在最壞的情況下,企業如果不能償付其債權人,則會破產。然而,更常見(但仍然昂貴)的情況是,企業必須以低廉的股價稀釋股東權益,以控制債務。當然,債務的好處在於,它通常代表廉價資本,尤其是當它取代具有高回報率再投資能力的公司稀釋時。考慮公司的債務使用時,我們首先看現金和債務的組合。
What Is Jinlong Machinery & ElectronicLtd's Net Debt?
金隆機械電子有限公司的淨債務是多少?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of June 2024 Jinlong Machinery & ElectronicLtd had CN¥239.1m of debt, an increase on CN¥203.8m, over one year. But it also has CN¥249.8m in cash to offset that, meaning it has CN¥10.7m net cash.
您可以點擊下面的圖表查看歷史數據,但顯示截至2024年6月,金隆機電有限公司負債23910萬人民幣,較一年前20380萬人民幣有所增加。但它也有24980萬人民幣的現金來抵消,意味着淨現金爲1070萬人民幣。
A Look At Jinlong Machinery & ElectronicLtd's Liabilities
金龍機電公司的負債情況
According to the last reported balance sheet, Jinlong Machinery & ElectronicLtd had liabilities of CN¥724.3m due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥232.0m due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥249.8m as well as receivables valued at CN¥356.5m due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥350.0m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
根據最近披露的資產負債表,金龍機電公司在12個月內到期的負債爲人民幣72430萬,超過12個月到期的負債爲人民幣23200萬。 抵消這些義務,它持有人民幣24980萬的現金以及12個月內到期值人民幣35650萬的應收賬款。 因此,其負債總額超過了現金和近期應收賬款的總額達人民幣35000萬。
Of course, Jinlong Machinery & ElectronicLtd has a market capitalization of CN¥3.54b, so these liabilities are probably manageable. But there are sufficient liabilities that we would certainly recommend shareholders continue to monitor the balance sheet, going forward. While it does have liabilities worth noting, Jinlong Machinery & ElectronicLtd also has more cash than debt, so we're pretty confident it can manage its debt safely. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Jinlong Machinery & ElectronicLtd will need earnings to service that debt. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
當然,金龍機電公司的市值爲人民幣35.4億,因此這些負債可能是可以管理的。 但是,我們會建議股東繼續監控資產負債表。 儘管它確實有值得注意的債務,但金龍機電公司的現金多於債務,因此我們相當有信心它可以安全地管理其債務。 在分析債務水平時,資產負債表是明顯的起點。 但你不能孤立地看待債務;因爲金龍機電公司需要盈利來償還債務。 因此,在考慮債務時,一定要看盈利趨勢。 點擊這裏查看互動快照。
In the last year Jinlong Machinery & ElectronicLtd had a loss before interest and tax, and actually shrunk its revenue by 57%, to CN¥1.7b. That makes us nervous, to say the least.
過去一年,金龍機電公司的利息和稅前虧損,並且其營業收入實際減少了57%至人民幣17億。 至少可以說這讓我們感到緊張。
So How Risky Is Jinlong Machinery & ElectronicLtd?
金龍機電公司的風險有多大?
We have no doubt that loss making companies are, in general, riskier than profitable ones. And in the last year Jinlong Machinery & ElectronicLtd had an earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) loss, truth be told. And over the same period it saw negative free cash outflow of CN¥233m and booked a CN¥439m accounting loss. But at least it has CN¥10.7m on the balance sheet to spend on growth, near-term. Overall, we'd say the stock is a bit risky, and we're usually very cautious until we see positive free cash flow. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. We've identified 1 warning sign with Jinlong Machinery & ElectronicLtd , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
毫無疑問,虧損公司一般來說比盈利公司更具風險性。 而過去一年,金龍機電公司的利息和稅前收益(EBIT)虧損,說實話。 同期也看到自由現金流流出達人民幣23300萬,並記錄了人民幣43900萬的會計虧損。 但至少它在資產負債表上有1070萬人民幣用於近期增長支出。 總的來說,我們認爲這支股票有些風險,通常在看到正面的自由現金流之前我們會非常謹慎。 在分析債務水平時,資產負債表是明顯的起點。 然而,並非所有的投資風險都存在於資產負債表中 - 這離真相還很遠。 我們已經識別出金龍機電公司1個警示信號,理解它們應該成爲您的投資過程的一部分。
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
歸根結底,專注於沒有淨債務的公司往往更好。您可以訪問我們的特別列表,其中包括所有表現出盈利增長軌跡的公司。這是免費的。
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