该行预计市场已经消化了8月的零售销售弱势，而国庆假期期间大陆游客的强劲来港应该惠及旅游区商场营运者（即九龙仓置业（01997）及希慎兴业（00014））。UBS published a report saying that due to the cyclical downturn in the housing market, the bank is more optimistic about developers than leasing shares because strong rent growth indicates that potential supply/demand is healthy. The bank expects real estate sales and prices to stabilize as interest rates become more favorable. Taikoo (01972), Henderson Land (00012), and Kerry Construction (00683) were top choices.
According to UBS, retail sales in Hong Kong fell 10.1% year on year to only HK$29 billion in August, slightly worse than the market consensus forecast of a 9% year-on-year decline, but the annual decline narrowed slightly. The bank estimates that a large number of Hong Kong people have left the country. On the other hand, the number of mainland visitors remained at 3.7 million in August, an increase of 7% over the same period last year (July: +6%), and returned to 76% of the August 2018 level. Sales of almost all product categories declined compared to the same period last year, with the exception of pharmaceuticals and cosmetics (+5%). Among them, luxury sales saw the biggest decline, at -24%, followed by department stores (-16%), consumer durables (-16%), and apparel (-12%). In contrast, food and supermarkets performed relatively well, at -4% and respectively
0% growth.
The bank anticipates that the market has absorbed the weak retail sales in August, and the strong arrival of mainland visitors to Hong Kong during the National Day holiday should benefit the operators of shopping malls in tourist areas (i.e. Jiulongchang Land (01997) and Hysan Development (00014)).
