Warner Music Hit By Streaming Volatility And Execution Risks: Analyst
Warner Music Hit By Streaming Volatility And Execution Risks: Analyst
Warner Music Group will continue to benefit from secular tailwinds in the music industry (like pricing and increased penetration), which should drive longer-term growth, as the analyst states.BofA Securities analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich downgraded Warner Music Group Corp (NASDAQ:WMG) from Neutral to Underperform and lowered the price target from $33 to $30.
美林证券分析师Jessica Reif Ehrlich将华纳音乐集团公司（纳斯达克:WMG）的评级从中立调降至表现不佳，并将价格目标从33美元降至30美元。
The price target is approximately 12 times the calendar year 2025 OIBDA (previously 13 times the 2025 OIBDA). Given the analyst's better long-term growth outlook, the multiple represents an approximately 25% premium to its media and entertainment coverage universe.
价格目标约为2025年日历年OIBDA的12倍（先前为2025年OIBDA的13倍）。鉴于分析师更好的长期增长前景，该多重倍数较其媒体和娱乐覆盖范围约高出25%。
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Warner Music Group will continue to benefit from secular tailwinds in the music industry (like pricing and increased penetration), which should drive longer-term growth, as the analyst states.
华纳音乐集团将继续受益于音乐行业的结构性顺风，例如价格和增加的普及率，这应推动长期增长，正如分析师所述。
However, given the relative disappointment in emerging platforms in the industry, volatility in ad-supported streaming, greater variability in subscription streaming than may have been appreciated, and several 1 times items (like BMG Rights Management in fiscal 2024 and Digital service provider repricing in prior years), the longer term growth potential and visibility of the music labels may not be as significant and predictable as initially thought, she said.
然而，鉴于该行业新兴平台的相对失望、广告支持的流媒体的波动性、订阅流媒体的变化性大于预期、以及若干1次性项目（例如2024财年的BMG Rights Management和之前几年的数字服务提供商定价重定），音乐唱片公司的长期增长潜力和可见性可能并不像最初预计的那样重要和可预测，她说。
This does not support as substantial of a premium valuation the labels currently trade at versus the analyst's Media & Entertainment coverage universe.
这不支持唱片公司目前与分析师的媒体和娱乐覆盖范围相比所交易的显著溢价估值。
Ever since the arrival of Rob Kyncl as CEO, there have been numerous changes to the Warner Music Group organization, most recently by their expanded restructuring efforts, she said. This has led to the departure of several leaders with deep industry experience.
自首席执行官罗伯·金克尔到任以来，华纳音乐集团组织已经进行了许多变革，最近是通过他们扩大的重组努力，她说。这导致了一些具有丰富行业经验的领导人离职。
While the company's new strategic direction and focus on technology may be the correct path in the longer term, this magnitude of disruption to an organization also comes with execution risks, as per the analyst.
尽管公司的新战略方向和对技术的关注在长期内可能是正确的道路，但组织的这种程度的混乱也带来了执行风险，根据分析师说。
The analyst cut the fiscal fourth-quarter revenue to $1.57 billion (from $1.59 billion), reflecting lower Digital Streaming revenue, and reduced her fiscal fourth-quarter adjusted OIBDA estimates to $336 million (from $346 million). For fiscal 2025, the analyst lowered revenue to $6.63 billion (from $6.68 billion) and adjusted OIBDA to $1.49 billion (from $1.52 billion).
分析师将财务第四季度的营业收入下调至$15.7亿（从$15.9亿），反映数字流媒体营收下降，将财务第四季度调整后的OIBDA预估下调至$33600万（从$34600万）。对于2025年财政年度，分析师将营收预测下调至$66.3亿（从$66.8亿），调整后的OIBDA下调至$14.9亿（从$15.2亿）。
Price Action: WMG stock is down 2.72% at $31.00 at last check Friday.
价格走势：WMG股票最新报价为$31.00，最近一次查看下跌了2.72%。
Photo via Shutterstock
图片来自shutterstock。
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- Warner Music Gains as Q3 Beats on Streaming, Analysts See Upside Potential
- 华纳音乐在第三季度流媒体业绩好于预期，分析师看到上行潜力。
