New Universe Environmental Group Limited (HKG:436) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 53% after a shaky period beforehand. The bad news is that even after the stocks recovery in the last 30 days, shareholders are still underwater by about 8.5% over the last year.
Even after such a large jump in price, it's still not a stretch to say that New Universe Environmental Group's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.6x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the Commercial Services industry in Hong Kong, where the median P/S ratio is around 0.5x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/S without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.
How Has New Universe Environmental Group Performed Recently?
For instance, New Universe Environmental Group's receding revenue in recent times would have to be some food for thought. Perhaps investors believe the recent revenue performance is enough to keep in line with the industry, which is keeping the P/S from dropping off. If you like the company, you'd at least be hoping this is the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.
Although there are no analyst estimates available for New Universe Environmental Group, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/S?
The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/S like New Universe Environmental Group's is when the company's growth is tracking the industry closely.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 18% decrease to the company's top line. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 49% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.
Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 6.9% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.
With this information, we find it concerning that New Universe Environmental Group is trading at a fairly similar P/S compared to the industry. Apparently many investors in the company are way less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.
The Final Word
New Universe Environmental Group's stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/S level with the rest of the industry. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-sales ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.
We find it unexpected that New Universe Environmental Group trades at a P/S ratio that is comparable to the rest of the industry, despite experiencing declining revenues during the medium-term, while the industry as a whole is expected to grow. Even though it matches the industry, we're uncomfortable with the current P/S ratio, as this dismal revenue performance is unlikely to support a more positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.
And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for New Universe Environmental Group (of which 1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) you should know about.
If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.