According to the Zhichong Finance app, due to the non-farm payroll data released on Friday far exceeding expectations, the market basically rules out the possibility of further 50 basis points interest rate cuts. Economists have expressed their views. Nomura Securities international analyst Aichi Aemiya stated that the Federal Reserve may reduce the interest rate cut to 25 basis points at the policy meetings in November and December. This senior economist said that the Federal Reserve is currently not considering another 50 basis points rate cut. He made the above comments on September 27 and October 1 before the strong employment report was released in September.

Aemiya stated that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell also shows "significant influence in the decision-making process of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)." He said that Powell's speech at the end of August in Jackson Hole was relatively dovish and then the FOMC further cut interest rates by 50 basis points at the September meeting, "Powell's opinion dominated the committee."

At the National Association for Business Economics annual meeting on Monday, Powell emphasized that the overall US economy is relatively stable and said, "This is not a hasty rate-cutting committee."

Amemiya believes that Powell's influence is growing, and his less aggressive stance on further rate cuts is the reason Amemiya predicts that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by another 25 basis points in November and December.

On Friday, the US non-farm payroll report for last month was released, far exceeding all economists' expectations. The three major US stock indices surged, with the Dow hitting a new record high. "The US inflation whistle-blower," former treasury minister Summers stated that in hindsight, the Federal Reserve's 50 basis points rate cut in September was a mistake, but this will not lead to "serious consequences." The latest US September non-farm payroll report confirms we are in a "high neutral rate environment," a period where monetary policy needs to be cautious about rate cuts.

In addition, Amemiya's forecast for the next interest rate path is as follows, "Although this depends on the upcoming data, the Federal Reserve will skip a rate cut in January and instead conduct quarterly rate cuts in 2025. Therefore, after the rate cut in December, the next rate cut is expected in March."

Amemiya believes that the interest rate cut decision in September fluctuated between 25 basis points and 50 basis points until a final decision was made, which is very unusual. Amemiya stated that the communication process before the meeting at the Federal Reserve was 'a mess.' The Federal Reserve declined to comment.

The analyst said, 'Before the September meeting's 'quiet period,' all the participants of the FOMC did not explicitly indicate a 50 basis point rate cut, including Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, who spoke before the quiet period.'

The next FOMC meeting will be held on November 6-7. During the next 'quiet period,' the U.S. October employment report will be released on November 1, and the U.S. presidential and congressional elections will also take place on November 5.