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What Fastly, Inc.'s (NYSE:FSLY) 28% Share Price Gain Is Not Telling You

Simply Wall St ·  Oct 5 09:30

Fastly, Inc. (NYSE:FSLY) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 28% gain and recovering from prior weakness. But the last month did very little to improve the 53% share price decline over the last year.

Although its price has surged higher, there still wouldn't be many who think Fastly's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 2x is worth a mention when the median P/S in the United States' IT industry is similar at about 2.3x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

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NYSE:FSLY Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry October 5th 2024

How Fastly Has Been Performing

Fastly certainly has been doing a good job lately as it's been growing revenue more than most other companies. One possibility is that the P/S ratio is moderate because investors think this strong revenue performance might be about to tail off. If not, then existing shareholders have reason to be feeling optimistic about the future direction of the share price.

Keen to find out how analysts think Fastly's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The P/S Ratio?

Fastly's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the industry.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company managed to grow revenues by a handy 14% last year. The latest three year period has also seen an excellent 64% overall rise in revenue, aided somewhat by its short-term performance. So we can start by confirming that the company has done a great job of growing revenues over that time.

Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 7.9% each year as estimated by the eleven analysts watching the company. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 11% each year growth forecast for the broader industry.

In light of this, it's curious that Fastly's P/S sits in line with the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited growth expectations and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as this level of revenue growth is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.

The Bottom Line On Fastly's P/S

Fastly's stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/S level with the rest of the industry. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

Given that Fastly's revenue growth projections are relatively subdued in comparison to the wider industry, it comes as a surprise to see it trading at its current P/S ratio. At present, we aren't confident in the P/S as the predicted future revenues aren't likely to support a more positive sentiment for long. This places shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for Fastly you should be aware of.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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