It hasn't been the best quarter for The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE:GEO) shareholders, since the share price has fallen 11% in that time. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last three years have been pleasing. In the last three years the share price is up, 58%: better than the market.

After a strong gain in the past week, it's worth seeing if longer term returns have been driven by improving fundamentals.

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During the three years of share price growth, GEO Group actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) drop 41% per year.

So we doubt that the market is looking to EPS for its main judge of the company's value. Therefore, we think it's worth considering other metrics as well.

We severely doubt anyone is particularly impressed with the modest 2.9% three-year revenue growth rate. While we don't have an obvious theory to explain the share price rise, a closer look at the data might be enlightening.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

It's good to see that there was some significant insider buying in the last three months. That's a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think GEO Group will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that GEO Group shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 56% over the last year. That's better than the annualised return of 1.2% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For instance, we've identified 4 warning signs for GEO Group (1 is a bit unpleasant) that you should be aware of.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: most of them are flying under the radar).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.