According to a report issued by Morgan Stanley, the target price for Yuexiu Real Estate (00123) was HK$5.48, based on a 35% discount on net asset value at the end of 2024. Given its stronger growth momentum, the company's valuation looks attractive. Recent catalysts include strong fourth-quarter pre-sales brought about by the People's Bank of China's recent policy relaxation. The company's initial coverage was “overrated.”
According to Damo, it is optimistic that Yuexiu Real Estate's sales, profit and dividend prospects are higher than those of its peers, thanks to high-quality saleable resources and superior land reserve channels. The company's state-owned enterprise background, sound financial situation and good capital pipeline convinced Damo that its liquidity risk was low and that it would continue to increase its market share.
Over the years, Yuexiu Real Estate has maintained good control over its leverage ratio (net debt ratio of 60% in the first half of 2024, cash coverage of short-term debt 1.5 times, average debt term > 3 years), which supports its investment grade credit rating.
Yuexiu Real Estate has introduced two equity incentive plans (up to about 5% of total shares) to align the interests of management and shareholders. After experiencing a decline in profits in 2023-2024, these factors should give it a strong impetus to achieve a stable payout ratio of 40% (one of the highest among its peers), making it
In the context of US interest rate cuts and profit recovery in 2024-2026, the dividend yield was maintained at 7-9%.