该行表示，采用DCF为公司估值，其中WACC为12%,永续增长为1%，测算得出目标价9.76港元，对应2024年18.2倍市盈率，较现价有56.9%上升空间，买入评级。Jinwu Financial News | According to First Shanghai Research and Development, in the first half of 2024, Shiyao Group (01093) had revenue of 16.28 billion yuan (+1.3% year over year, same below), gross profit of 11.65 billion yuan (+3.7%), and gross profit margin of 71.6% (+1.7 pts). Based on the profit attributable to shareholders of 2.02 billion yuan (+1.8%) as shown in the financial statements, the net interest rate to mother is 18.5% (+0.1 pts). By sector, the proprietary medicine sector recorded revenue of 13.55 billion yuan (+4.8%), and Q2 revenue declined markedly; although the price of vitamin C raw products slowly rebounded, sector revenue fell 5.4% year-on-year in the first half of the year to 0.98 billion yuan; the antibiotic raw materials sector was depressed by a decrease in overseas demand, with revenue of 0.87 billion yuan (-6.4%); due to falling prices of caffeine products, the functional food sector earned 0.88 billion yuan (-25.2%).
The bank pointed out that EnbiPu DoT is limited by the hospital's medical model, has yet to maximize its value, and there is a bottleneck in in-hospital sales. The company has established a dedicated sales team to connect in-hospital and out-of-hospital sales to extend DoT, which can not only achieve deeper benefits for patients, but also support the continued growth of Enbipu's sales through continued efforts on the retail side.
The bank continued that many of the company's pipelines are still continuing to advance to the commercialization stage. PD-1 enranzubimab was approved for 2L cervical cancer in June. Omalizumab and amphotericin B liposomes are expected to be approved for marketing in 2024, while white purple II, docetaxel, usinumab, and meloxiconacin are expected to be approved for marketing in 2025. Additionally, the FDA has completed GMP field reviews of two liposomes, amphotericin and irinotecan, and it is expected that they will be approved for listing in the US in the first half of 2025. As new products continue to be approved for marketing, and health insurance negotiations promote admission and sales, the proprietary medicine sector is expected to resume rapid growth next year.
The bank said that using DCF as the company's valuation, WACC was 12%, with a sustainable growth of 1%. The estimated target price was HK$9.76, which corresponds to a price-earnings ratio of 18.2 times in 2024, with room for an increase of 56.9% compared to the current price.
