该行维持了对美联储连续进行25个基点的降息的预期，预计到2025年6月，最终利率将降至3.25-3.5%。After the latest employment report showed better-than-expected data, Goldman Sachs lowered the probability that the US will fall into recession in the next 12 months by 5 percentage points to 15%.
The US Department of Labor announced on Friday that the increase in non-farm payrolls in the US in September was the biggest in six months, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%.
Goldman Sachs chief US economist Jan Hatzius said in a report on Sunday that the September employment report “resets the job market narrative” and calms concerns that employment demand “weakens too fast to stop the rising unemployment rate.”
The bank maintained its expectation that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates by 25 basis points continuously. It is expected that the final interest rate will drop to 3.25-3.5% by June 2025.
“We now think the risk of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points again is much smaller,” Hatzius said.
Last month, the Federal Reserve cut the policy interest rate by 50 basis points to the 4.75%-5.00% range. This is the first rate cut since 2020.
After the release of the non-agricultural data, the CME Group's FedWatch tool showed that the financial market increased the chance of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in November from 71.5% before the report was released to 95.2%.
Goldman Sachs said that although employment data fluctuates greatly, since there is no clear indication that employment data will continue to be further negative, it is acceptable to accept the information conveyed by these data from the surface.
“More broadly, we see no obvious reason for job growth to be mediocre at a time when job vacancies are high and GDP growth is strong,” Hatzius said.
However, Goldman Sachs warned that October could be a particularly complicated month, and the impact of the hurricane and large-scale strikes could depress the number of employed people.
