The only major Wall Street bank that still expects a 50 basis point rate cut in November, Citigroup, has also surrendered. Market expectations for a Fed rate cut have been reduced to less than 50 basis points accumulated by the end of the year for the first time since August 1, with an expected decrease of 21 basis points in November.

Investors accelerated selling of US stocks, with all sectors generally declining. Only the energy sector closed higher due to the surge in oil prices. Super Micro announced a quarterly shipment of 0.1 million GPUs, causing the stock price to soar nearly 16%. Investors are concerned about the listing of Tesla Robotaxi, the future of Apple's AI ​​phone, Google's app store ban ruling, and the magnificent 7 tech giants collectively falling. Chinese concept stocks rebounded in a V shape, dropping nearly 3% before closing higher, outperforming the overall US stock market.

Two-year and 10-year US Treasury yieldsOnceBreaking above 4% for the first time since August, gold prices have fallen for three consecutive days. The US dollar remains at a seven-week high, with stock market declines boosting safe-haven currencies like the Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen. In addition to Japanese forex officials warning against speculative bets on recent yen devaluation, providing support for the yen. Concerns in the market arise from an Israeli attack on Iran's oil infrastructure and Hurricane Milton upgrading to a Category 5 hurricane, pushing oil prices higher for the fifth consecutive day, with Brent crude closing above $80 for the first time since August.

In Europe, ECB board members Veilleroy and VILLEROY, Governor of the Bank of France, both indicated a likely rate cut in October. However, the ECB's most hawkish board member, Holzmann, stated that the ECB must not declare victory over inflation too soon, as core inflation in the Eurozone remains too high.

The three major U.S. indexes collectively fell by about 1%, with investors accelerating the selling of U.S. stocks towards the end of the session. When touching the daily low, the Nasdaq fell by over 1.3%, the S&P 500 by over 1.1%, and the Dow Jones by over 1.2%, while small-cap stock indexes fell by over 1.4%. In terms of sectors, only the energy sector benefited from the surge in oil prices and closed higher:

• U.S. stock indexes fell across the board. The S&P 500 fell by 55.13 points, a decrease of 0.96%, closing at 5695.94 points. The Dow Jones, closely related to the economic cycle, fell by 398.51 points, a decrease of 0.94%, closing at 41954.24 points. The Nasdaq, which is dominated by technology stocks, fell by 213.95 points, a decrease of 1.18%, closing at 17923.90 points. The Nasdaq 100 fell by 1.17%. The Nasdaq Technology Market Capitalization Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of Nasdaq 100 technology sector components, fell by 1.05%. The Russell 2000 small-cap stock index, which is more sensitive to the economic cycle, fell by 0.89%. The VIX panic index rose by 17.86%, closing at 22.64.

• U.S. industry ETFs generally fell, with the energy industry ETF leading the way with a rise of over 0.3%. The utility ETF fell by 2.3%, the consumer discretionary ETF and internet stock index ETF fell by about 1.5%, the financial industry ETF and biotechnology index ETF fell by at least 1.2%, the global technology stock index ETF fell by over 0.9%, the technology industry ETF fell by about 0.7%, the semiconductor ETF rose by 0.16%, and the energy industry ETF rose by 0.35%.

• The 11 sectors of the S&P 500 index generally declined. The utility sector fell by 2.32%, the telecom and consumer discretionary sectors fell by over 1.9%, the financial sector fell by over 1.2%, the real estate sector and information technology/technology sector fell by about 0.7%, while the energy sector rose by 0.35%.

• On the news front, Bloomberg data shows that as of October 4, nearly $6 billion flowed into U.S.-listed emerging markets and specific country ETFs, reaching a new high in over a year. Among them, five major ETFs investing in Chinese stocks attracted about $4.9 billion, a record scale. During the National Day holiday, traders shifted their focus to futures listed on the Singapore and Hong Kong exchanges, with open interest in the Singapore Exchange's FTSE China A50 Index Futures hitting a record high. Goldman Sachs pointed out that clients are most concerned about whether there is a flow of funds from India to China, and the answer is undoubtedly yes.
• "Magnificent 7" only saw Nvidia rise. Nvidia closed up by 2.24%, while Apple fell by 2.25%. Jefferies downgraded the rating, stating that investors are overly optimistic about AI phones. Reports suggest that Apple plans to release Apple Intelligence and iOS 18.1 on October 28, and Apple has not given up on Micro LED technology. AR glasses equipped with Micro LED are expected to be mass-produced in 2026, competing with Meta's Orion AR glasses. Tesla fell by 3.7%, Microsoft fell by 1.57%. Google Class A fell by 2.44%, with a judge ruling that Google's app store must allow competitors' apps to be listed. Meta fell by 1.87%, Amazon fell by 3.06%, and Wells Fargo downgraded Amazon's rating from overweight to neutral, with a target price of $183.

• Chip stocks are mixed. Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 0.19%, industry ETF SOXX fell 0.27%, Nvidia two times long ETF rose 4.52%. TSMC ADR rose 1.85%, Micron Technology rose 0.76%, Arm Holdings rose 0.56%, AMD rose 0.04%, while Intel fell 0.93%, Qualcomm fell 1.16%, Broadcom fell 0.88%, KLA Corp fell 0.73%.
• AI concept stocks are mixed. Super Micro Computer rose 15.79%, achieving the best single-day performance since May 15, with the company claiming that its AI GPU quarterly shipments exceeded 0.1 million sets. Serve Robotics rose 11.74%, BigBear.ai rose 1.99%, Nvidia-backed AI voice company SoundHound AI rose 1.07%, C3.ai rose 0.08%. Meanwhile, Dell Technologies fell 1.1%, CrowdStrike fell 1.8%, BullFrog AI fell 3.35%, Snowflake fell 0.78%, Oracle fell 0.52%, Palantir fell 2.8%.

• Chinese concept stocks outperformed the U.S. market. Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed 0.07%, China Technology Index ETF (CQQQ) rose 6.43%, China Internet Index ETF (KWEB) rose 1.2%, FTSE China 3x Bull ETF (YINN) rose 13%, FTSE China 3x Bear ETF (YANG) fell 13.41%, "China Dragon" ETF RONDHL CHINA ETF (DRAG) rose 3.12%, XtrackersHarvest CSI 50 (ASHS) rose 9.99%, Deutsche Bank Harvest CSI 300 Index ETF (ASHR) rose 7.98%. FTSE A50 night session rose 1.98%, hitting a new high since mid-December 2021.
  

• Among popular Chinese concept stocks, Mengniu Dairy ADR rose 10.52%, Meituan ADR rose 4.51%, Li Auto Inc. rose 4.18%, Zeekr rose 4.01%, Baidu rose 3.63%, Alibaba rose 2.61%, Tencent ADR rose 2.6%, Xpeng rose 2.11%, Nio Inc. rose 0.3%, JD.com rose 0.23%, while Tiger Securities rose nearly 16.9% in early trading but fell 7.51% by the close, Fangdd Network fell 14.23%, Bilibili fell 4.03%, NetEase fell 2.72%, New Oriental fell 1.29%, PDD Holdings fell 0.76%.
• Other notable individual stocks: Activist investor Starboard Value holds approximately $1 billion in Pfizer, and Pfizer rose 2.17%.

European stocks continued to rise on Monday, breaking the trend of four consecutive days of decline last Thursday:

STOXX 600 index rose 0.18% to 519.48 points. Eurozone STOXX 50 index rose 0.30%. In sectors, housewares stocks led the gains with a 0.97% rise, while technology stocks fell 0.65%.

Germany's DAX 30 Index fell by 0.09%. The France CAC 40 Index rose by 0.46%. Italy's FTSE MIB Index increased by 0.66%. The UK's FTSE 100 Index rose by 0.28%. The Netherlands AEX Index rose by 0.11%. Spain's IBEX 35 Index rose by 0.5%.

Strong non-farm payrolls, coupled with rising oil prices, have raised concerns among investors about the risk of a rebound in US inflation, leading the market to lower expectations of rate cuts by the European and American central banks. The US 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields both rose above 4% intraday for the first time since August, with European bond prices following the decline in US bonds:

• US Bonds: At the end of the day, the more sensitive 2-year US Treasury yield rose by 7.76 basis points to 3.9994%, briefly rising over 10 basis points to 4.0223% during the day, accumulating an increase of 39.71 basis points over the past four trading days. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield increased by 5.64 basis points to 4.0236%, trading between 3.9653% and 4.0314% intraday, approaching the August 1st peak of 4.0642% and the April 25th high of 4.7351%.
• Eurozone Bonds: At the close, the yield on the 10-year German benchmark bond rose by 4.6 basis points to 2.256%. The 2-year German bond yield increased by 4.4 basis points to 2.247%. The 10-year UK bond yield rose by 7.8 basis points, while the 2-year UK bond yield rose by 8.4 basis points. The 10-year French bond yield increased by 4.0 basis points, and the Italy 10-year bond yield rose by 6.3 basis points.

The US dollar lingered near a seven-week high on non-farm payrolls day. Most non-US currencies fell, with the British pound falling for seven consecutive days, but safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen performed well, strengthening intraday to break above 148. The offshore renminbi strengthened, closing up 272 points, while Bitcoin rose over 0.8% to test above $65,000.

• 美元：美元指数DXY跌0.03%，报102.493点，日内交投区间为102.620-102.368点，脱离非农日（10月4日）所创8月16日以来最高位102.687点。彭博美元指数涨0.03%，报1238.67点，日内交投区间为1236.91-1239.25点。

• 非美货币多数下跌：欧元兑美元大致持平，英镑兑美元跌0.31%，美元兑瑞郎跌0.46%；商品货币对中，澳元兑美元跌0.70%，纽元兑美元跌0.58%，美元兑加元涨0.39%。
• 日元：日元兑美元涨0.35%，报148.17日元，日内交投区间为149.13-147.86日元。
• 离岸人民币（CNH）：离岸人民币兑美元尾盘涨272点，报7.0712元，盘中整体交投于7.1010-7.0581元区间。美国芝商所CME称，其平台上的离岸人民币Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)'s latest data shows that investors are significantly reducing their net short positions in US soybean, corn, and wheat contracts, easing bearish sentiment in the market.量飙升至纪录高位，全年都看到对人民币现汇和期货产品的强劲需求。
• 加密货币：市值最大的龙头比特币尾盘涨0.82%站上0.063 million美元，盘中交投于62615.00-64770.00美元区间。第二大的以太坊尾盘0.51%，报2445.50美元。

Market continues to worry about Israel's strike on Iran's oil infrastructure, combined with concerns about Hurricane 'Milton' affecting US Gulf Coast refineries, oil prices have risen for five consecutive days. US crude oil closes up by 3.7% to a six-week high, Brent crude rises to $80 for the first time since August.

• US crude oil: WTI November crude oil futures closed up $2.76, up 3.71%, at $77.14 per barrel, accumulated a 18.42% increase since the closing on September 10th. US oil surged throughout the session, reaching as high as 4.1% towards the end to surpass $77.40.
• Brent crude: Brent December crude oil futures closed up $2.88, up 3.69%, at $80.93 per barrel, marking the first close above $80 since August 12th, with a cumulative rebound of 17.58% since the closing on September 10th. Brent crude surged throughout the session, hitting a high of nearly 4% to break through $81.10 by the end.
• Analyst's view: Alan Gelder, Vice President of Oil Markets at Wood Mackenzie, stated on Monday that the market currently only expects Israel to potentially attack Iran's oil facilities, but the real threat lies in the potential shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for 20% of global crude oil exports. If Iran retaliates against the strait due to Israel's attack, it will significantly impact global oil prices. Analysts warn that the current Middle East tensions have not yet resulted in crude supply disruptions, but the longer the conflict continues, the greater the risk. Goldman Sachs points out that if Iranian oil supplies are disrupted, Brent could soar to the $90 range, with the extent of the increase depending on whether OPEC can fill the supply gap.
• On the news front, Hurricane 'Milton' rapidly intensified to 175 miles per hour, and Biden declared a state of emergency in Florida.
• Natural Gas: US November natural gas futures fell by 3.78%, at $2.7460 per million British thermal units. The European benchmark TTF Dutch natural gas futures fell by 0.18%, at 40.925 euros per megawatt-hour. ICE UK natural gas futures rose by 0.40%, at 103.010 pence per therm.

The robust employment situation makes the market have no expectation of a significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November, putting pressure on the gold price for three consecutive days.

• Gold: COMEX December gold futures fell 0.20% to $2662.50 per ounce at the close. Spot gold in Europe continued its earlier gains during the session, rising over 0.2% to approach $2660, then continued to decline. Pre-market trading in the US saw a drop of nearly 0.6%, breaking below $2640, and closing down 0.41% at $2642.74 per ounce, bidding farewell to the historical high of $2685.42 set on September 26.
• Silver: COMEX December silver futures fell 1.39% at the close, to $31.945 per ounce. Spot silver rose slightly in early Asian trading, but then continued to decline. Pre-market trading in the US saw a drop of over 2.4%, approaching $31.40. At the close, it was down 1.67% at $31.6850 per ounce.
• On the news front: The People's Bank of China paused its gold purchases for the fifth consecutive month. Peter A. Grant, Vice President and Senior Metals Strategist at Zaner Metals, said that despite the short-term obstacle of a strong US dollar preventing gold from hitting new highs, gold still has the potential to reach $2700 in the short term and even $3000 in the long term, especially with the upcoming US elections and geopolitical tensions.
• London industrial metals show mixed movements: Copper fell by 0.14% to $9930 per ton, and lead fell by $1 to $2148 per ton. Zinc rose by $8 to $3174 per ton, aluminum rose by $5 to $2658 per ton, and nickel rose by $100 to $33905 per ton. Nickel increased by 0.33% to $18052 per ton.
• COMEX copper futures fell by 0.43% to $4.5545 per pound.

The following is the updated content before 23:00 on October 7th.

On Monday, October 7th, the US stock market opened with all three major indexes falling. The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell nearly 0.7% at one point, the Dow Jones, closely tied to the economic cycle, fell over 0.5% or 218 points at one point, and the S&P 500 fell over 0.4% at one point.

China concept stocks paused their gains. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index initially rose over 1.6% before falling over 2.8%. Component stocks such as Agora and KE Holdings are currently down over 8%, Zeekr surged over 21.4% but halved its gains, Li Auto rose over 5.8% but retreated, Xpeng initially rose over 5.9%, Nio initially rose over 2.1% but later fell over 1.4%, Mengniu Dairy ADR surged over 5.9%, while Fangdd Network fell over 33.2%, Bilibili fell over 5.9% but narrowed its decline.

The Magnificent Seven tech stocks saw more declines than gains. Amazon fell over 3.1% at one point, Tesla fell over 2% at one point. Apple fell over 1.2% at one point, Jefferies downgraded the rating, stating that investors were overly optimistic about AI phones. Google A fell over 0.6% at one point, Microsoft fell over 0.4% at one point, Nvidia surged over 2.3% but cut its gains in half.

Semiconductor stocks saw more declines than gains. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell over 0.7% at the open, ASML Holding ADR fell over 2.6% at the open, while Taiwan Semiconductor fell nearly 1.9% at the open before giving back most of its gains.

AI concept stocks varied in performance. Serve Robotics surged nearly 21% at one point, Super Micro Computer surged over 6.2% at one point, BigBear.ai surged over 6.5% at one point, while BullFrog AI fell over 2.5% at one point, Dell Technologies rose over 0.2% but then fell over 1%. Oracle surged nearly 0.5% at one point.

In research strategy, Goldman Sachs' Liu Jinjin published the latest commentary, stating the top ten reasons for buying Chinese assets now. For example, the first reason is the emergence of a 'policy bottom', with policies supporting economic growth and stock markets. Citigroup revised its forecast for the Fed, expecting a 25 basis point rate cut in November instead of 50 basis points.

The following is an article by Wall Street seen before the US stock market opens.

Last week, the U.S. announced the September non-farm payroll dataunexpectedly robust, leading to a decline in U.S. stocks, with major government bond yields rebounding. The market is eagerly awaiting the U.S. inflation data to be released on Thursday this week, with economists expecting a slight slowdown in year-on-year price growth.

On Monday, October 7th, pre-market trading in the U.S., the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury notes rose by over 4%, and the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury notes broke 4% for the first time since August, extending the uptrend from Friday.

The three major U.S. futures all trended lower, while Europe's STOXX 600 index edged slightly lower, with collective increases in European bond yields.

Currently, the forward market has reduced the market's expectations for a rate cut in the U.S. next month to less than 25 basis points, whereas until recently, the market had expected a rate cut of 50 basis points.

In addition, the U.S. bank earnings season is about to begin. Despite forecasts predicting profit growth to slow down starting from the second quarter, the data is still expected to be strong.

Today, Asian stock markets closed mostly higher, with the Nikkei 225 Index rising over 2%, the KOSPI Index in South Korea up by 1.58%, only the Indian stock market closing lower, with the NIFTY Index down by 0.87% and the SENSEX Index down by 0.78%.

The latest data shows that global funds have hit a record high level of net selling of Indian stocks, with at least the largest net selling since January 1, 1999. Goldman Sachs believes this is because 'when the Chinese stock market sees 'intense' buying, the Indian market becomes vulnerable'.

Goldman Sachs India trader Nikhilesh Kasi responded to clients, 'There is no doubt, yes, (funds are flowing from India to China)', and explained that according to what they see in fund flows, this trend is very evident.

In terms of oil prices, due to the rapidly deteriorating situation in the Middle East, crude oil prices surged last week. Brent crude futures soared by over 5% last Friday. Currently, Brent crude is approaching $80 per barrel. Goldman Sachs also stated in another report that oil prices are going through a short squeeze.

Goldman Sachs states that as the energy sector's momentum rises, the historic short squeeze in the oil market is just beginning. If Israel really takes action to destroy Iran's oil infrastructure, or worse, target its nuclear industry, the upcoming surge in oil prices will make the 2008 Volkswagen short squeeze pale in comparison.

[Update at 20:33]

U.S. stock index futures are trading lower.

S&P 500 index futures are down 0.39%, Nasdaq futures are down 0.51%, Dow futures are down 0.37%.