摩根大通分析师表示，自9月中旬以来，中国股市的远期市盈率已从低于历史平均值近 1 个标准差回升至历史平均水平，涨幅达到约35%。JPMorgan believes that the forward price-earnings ratio of the Chinese stock market has significantly rebounded, indicating a shift in policy towards the inflation direction released by the combination of monetary/real estate assets, and also reflects the market's high expectations for fiscal stimulus policies. However, the short-term outlook may be too optimistic. After the A-share market opens, with more individual investors entering, its performance may outperform Hong Kong stocks.
During the National Day holiday when A shares were closed, Chinese assets still delivered impressive performance, with the MSCI Chinese Index, Hang Seng Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index all up by 11%, 10%, and 17% respectively, providing a strong boost to the market.
On October 8th, A shares will resume trading. Will this once again drive Hong Kong stocks and other markets to a higher level? JPMorgan wrote in a report released on October 6th that after A shares open, there may be a pullback in Hong Kong's real estate, consumer, and financial stocks, but this is healthy. With more individual investors entering A shares, their performance may outperform Hong Kong stocks.
JPMorgan analysts stated that since mid-September, the forward P/E ratio of the Chinese stock market has rebounded from nearly 1 standard deviation below the historical average to the historical average level, with an increase of about 35%.
JPMorgan believes that this sign indicates a shift in policy towards asset reflation driven by the monetary/real estate combination, and also reflects the market's high expectations for fiscal stimulus policies, but may be overly optimistic in the short term.
In addition, JPMorgan references the Japan TOPIX Index (1994-1998) as a framework, believing that the MSCI Chinese Index is in the 43rd month of a 54-month downward trend, while the Chinese stock market has reached a lower forward P/E level (8.6 times in mid-September 2024, compared to 34 times for the TOPIX Index at the same stage).
However, it is worth noting that the nikkei index rose by about 81% from its low point (October 1998) to its peak (February 2000), achieved after a large-scale debt restructuring in Japan.
JPMorgan maintains an excess target for the MSCI Chinese index at 75 (11.5 times forward PE, the market generally expects a 11% increase in forward EPS, with EPS growth of 15%/11% in 2024/2025. For the CSI 300 index, they set an excess target at 4150 (13.8 times forward PE, with market expectations of a 13% increase in forward EPS, and EPS growth of 8%/14% in 2024/2025).
