The consumption data for the 'Golden Week' in 2024 has been successively released. Overall, with the strong support of national policies to promote consumption and stabilize the economy, the year-on-year growth of various consumption data during the Golden Week is significant, and there is also a positive month-on-month trend.
According to a research report released by China International Capital Corporation, the consumption data for the 'Golden Week' in 2024 has been successively released. Overall, with the strong support of national policies to promote consumption and stabilize the economy, the year-on-year growth of various consumption data during the Golden Week is significant, and there is also a positive month-on-month trend, indicating an improvement in residents' consumption willingness and a restoration of consumer confidence. Long-distance travel, inbound and outbound travel, and county-level tourism have shown outstanding performance. Cultural activities like watching movies and visiting exhibitions are popular, and categories such as household appliances and gold jewelry have seen remarkable growth. The report continues to be bullish on the continuous support and catalytic effects of subsequent policies to promote consumption in the consumer market.
China International Capital Corporation's main views are as follows:
Retail, light industry, daily chemicals: The data for the Golden Week shows a high level of prosperity, with policies leading to a restoration of consumer confidence.
1. Both year-on-year and month-on-month consumer prosperity have improved. Nationwide consumption during the 'Golden Week' generally showed positive trends. According to data from various provinces and cities, key business districts in first-tier cities experienced a significant increase in foot traffic. For instance, the Tianhe Road business district in Guangzhou (increased by 13% to 41% for the first 4 days) and 60 key business districts in Beijing (total increase of 20.9% for the first 4 days) saw noticeable year-on-year increases in foot traffic, and month-on-month trends also improved compared to the 'May Day Golden Week'. Self-driving tours and cultural tourism activities boosted performance in central and western regions as well as lower-tier cities. Big data from Mafengwo shows that Chengdu, Chongqing, Xi'an, Xinjiang, and other places are among the popular domestic destinations, with tickets for places like Sanxingdui and Jiuzhaigou selling out early. Rental car data also indicates a surge in popularity of destinations in county-level areas. Additionally, both inbound and outbound tourism and long-distance travel have seen increased popularity, with Ctrip platform showing average daily order volumes for inbound and outbound tourism exceeding the same period in 2019, reaching a historical high.
2. Cultural tourism activities such as watching movies and visiting exhibitions are popular, while trendy experiences and gaming have become new highlights. Cultural tourism was vibrant during the National Day holiday, with Beijing organizing a total of 843 events and 933 activities, an 11% year-on-year increase. Places like the Forbidden City and the National Museum saw extremely high demand, and activities like lantern festivals, concerts, and intangible cultural heritage experiences became popular holiday options. Trendy experiences and gaming added color to the short holiday, with 'Legend of the Monkey King' driving over 30% year-on-year growth in Ctrip bookings for destinations like Datong, Huozhou, and Linfen in Shanxi. Search interest on the Ctrip platform for keywords like 'Second Dimension' and 'Wild Rice' increased by 120% compared to the previous month. Furthermore, offline movie-watching remains popular, with box office earnings on the first day of the National Day reaching 0.495 billion yuan, surpassing the 2019 first-day level of 0.43 billion yuan and ranking fourth in the history of National Day box office.
3. Categories such as household appliances and gold jewelry have performed well, with a significant boost from the policy of trading in old items for new ones. Household appliances have shown impressive performance due to policies promoting trading in old items for new ones. Additionally, there has been strong demand for gold jewelry driven by occasions like weddings. According to reports from CCTV, during the holiday period in Shuibei, Shenzhen, transaction volume and foot traffic in gold merchants increased by approximately 40% and 30% year-on-year, respectively. According to data from the Ministry of Commerce, about 1.0455 million consumers purchased approximately 1.5461 million units of eight categories of household appliances through the trade-in policy in the first 3 days of the National Day holiday, with sales amounting to 7.357 billion yuan; during the Golden Week, Suning's national stores saw a 200% increase in foot traffic and a 132% increase in trade-in orders.
Tourism hotels and dining: The trend of quantity and price during the National Day holiday continues, with staggered travel/multi-trend becoming more prominent.
During the National Day holiday, the diversity of outbound travelers and destinations is increasing, with travel having a more 'relaxed feeling', significant recovery in outbound travel elasticity, hotels continuing the trend of 'stable quantity and falling price', and maintaining stable traffic flow in Hainan compared to the same period last year.
Tourism: The quantity and price trends of National Day travel continue from previous holidays; travelers and destinations are increasingly diversified. In terms of traffic volume, according to the Ministry of Transportation data, from October 1st to 5th, 2024, the cross-regional population flow of society as a whole increased by 2.8% from 23, and 24.0% from 19; among them, the railway passenger volume increased by 6.6% from 23 and 28.0% from 19, highway passenger flow increased by 2.4% from 23 and 24.3% from 19 (non-commercial small car passenger travel increased by 2.4% from 23 and 56.8% from 19, commercial passenger volume increased by 2.5% from 23 and decreased by 47.0% from 19), waterway passenger volume increased by 17.7% from 23 and decreased by 27.2% from 19, civil aviation passenger volume increased by 13.4% from 23 and 22.1% from 19. In terms of prices, data from Qunar shows that during the National Day, the average payment price of air tickets and the average price of high-star hotels decreased by approximately 10% and 15% year-on-year, respectively; at the same time, due to this year's more prominent staggered travel trend during the National Day holiday and the price strategies of supply entities tending more towards price for quantity exchange, the flight and hotel price curves have become smoother, with the peak prices lower than in previous years, and significantly fewer instances of significant price drops compared to previous National Day holidays.
The diversity of outbound travelers and destinations is increasing; having a more 'relaxed feeling' during travel. In terms of travelers, data from Qunar shows that residents of third-tier cities and below are showing a high enthusiasm for travel, during this year's National Day holiday period on the Qunar platform, the number of first-time purchases of flight tickets by residents with their permanent residence in third-tier cities and below increased by over 50% compared to the same period in 2023, with first-time purchases of international flight tickets increasing by over 70%, and the number of outbound travel orders more than tripled year-on-year (compared to second-tier cities with an increase of around 70%, new first-tier cities with an increase of around 40%, and first-tier cities remaining basically unchanged). Data from Ctrip shows that during the National Day holiday period, post-00s (excluding post-05s) accounted for nearly 20% of orders on the Ctrip platform, surpassing post-85s and post-90s as the main consumer block for travelers; the senior traveler group's growth rate and average travel price are significantly ahead of the market. In terms of travel destinations, data from Qunar shows that during the holiday period, small and county-level cities saw the highest increase in hotel bookings, with bookings for high-star hotels in county-level areas increasing by about 50%; while the most popular destinations remain traditional tourist cities such as Beijing, Chengdu, Chongqing, and Shanghai. Ctrip data shows that county-level tourism is highly favored by young consumers, with nearly half of the county tourist bookings in the first three days before the holiday coming from the post-90s and post-00s; these young people come mostly from cities like Beijing and Shanghai, with the view that this is primarily due to the more convenient high-speed rail infrastructure, diverse consumer demands, and more attractive destination formats. At the same time, holiday travel has a more 'relaxed feeling', Ctrip data shows that the average number of days travelers book in advance for the National Day holiday has decreased from 6.8 days in 2023 to 6 days in 2024, with nearly 30% of travelers choosing to travel on the same day or one day in advance, an increase of 6 percentage points year-on-year; staggered travel is gradually becoming the new normal (with nearly 30% of travelers departing early before the holiday, travel orders during the first weekend after the National Day holiday increased by 10% compared to the same period in September, and in some regions, tourism orders were basically at the same level as during the National Day holiday).
Traditional high-quality tourist destinations are leading in growth. It is estimated that during the 2024 National Day holiday, daily performances at the Songcheng Performance Development's scenic spots increased by about 68% year-on-year, and the daily performances at existing heavy asset scenic spots opened last year increased by about 35% year-on-year (with Xi'an, Hangzhou, and Guilin projects leading in growth, partly due to the opening of the second theater in the Xi'an project in the summer and the lower base number of the Hangzhou project brought about by the Hangzhou Asian Games last year). From October 1st to 5th, 2024, Changbai Mountain Scenic Area received a cumulative total of 1.524 million visitors, an increase of 21% year-on-year. It is estimated that Mount Emei received about a 21% increase in visitors from October 1st to 6th, 2024 (compared to the data from September 30th to October 5th, 2023). Yellow Mountain is estimated to have received about a 4% increase in visitors from October 1st to 3rd, 2024.
Key provinces and cities: Data from the Sanya municipal government in Hainan shows that during the first three days before the National Day holiday, the tourist volume at Sanya's attractions and coconut-rated rural tourism spots increased by 14.5% year-on-year. Data from the Sichuan Provincial Department of Culture and Tourism shows that in the first six days before the holiday this year, 890 Class A scenic spots in Sichuan received about 15% more visitors and generated 8% more ticket revenue compared to the first six days before the holiday last year. Data from the Guangdong Provincial Department of Culture and Tourism shows that from October 1st to 4th, the number of visitors to 4A-level and above scenic spots across the province increased by a comparable 6.3% year-on-year.
Outbound travel recovery is significant. Data from Flight Master shows that from October 1st to 6th, 2024, the daily average passenger volume of international flights/ regional flights increased by 50.1%/6.4% year-on-year compared to 2023, reaching approximately 83.5%/71.8% of the levels in 19 (compared to 74.3%/71.9% for the May Day holiday and summer vacation recovery rates respectively). In terms of outbound travel destinations, data from Qunar shows that Japan, Thailand, South Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, and other countries lead in the number of orders. Data from the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region government shows that from October 1st to 5th, a total of 0.98 million visitors from Mainland China entered Hong Kong, an increase of about 35% year-on-year. Data from the Macao SAR Government Tourism Office shows that from October 1st to 5th, a total of 0.68 million visitors from Mainland China entered Macao, an increase of about 38% year-on-year. Additionally, due to increased supply, outbound travel prices have fallen, with Qunar data showing a 15% year-on-year decrease in average payments for international flights and hotels during this year's National Day holiday.
Hotels: During the National Day holiday, the trend of 'stable quantity and falling price' in hotels continues, with a focus on the year-on-year performance of RevPAR against a lower base period after the holiday. 1) The release of leisure travel demand during the National Day holiday continues the trend of 'stable quantity and falling price', while still maintaining significant growth: Data from Ctrip shows a significant year-on-year increase in daily hotel and homestay orders during the National Day holiday; the performance of hotels in less popular city destinations is more prominent, as shown by Tongcheng data, with cities like Shaanxi's Shanlo, Xinjiang's Kashi and Hami, Yunnan's Xishuangbanna, and Guangdong's Chaozhou seeing a high increase in hotel reservations by October 3rd; according to Qunar data, high-star hotel bookings in county-level areas during the National Day holiday increased by more than 50% year-on-year, with an overall increase of over 30% in high-star hotel bookings. Taking Huazhu Group as an example, as of September 26th, the overall hotel booking rate of Huazhu brands during the National Day holiday is almost flat with 23. In addition, consumers' booking windows continue to shorten, as Qunar data shows a 40% year-on-year increase in temporary hotel bookings in popular cities in the first two days before the holiday. In terms of price, it is estimated that hotel prices during the National Day holiday have fallen compared to the high base numbers in the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day double holidays in 2023. Qunar data shows that high-star hotel prices dropped by about 15% during the National Day period, and according to Fliggy data released on 9/19, the average hotel booking price for the entire National Day holiday decreased by about 4.5% compared to 23. 2) Focus on the trend of RevPAR changes in the industry after the holiday: STR data shows that in the first three weeks of September, the mainland China hotel industry's RevPAR year-on-year changes were -6.6%/-13.3%/-17.1%; looking ahead, it is recommended to focus on the year-on-year changes in RevPAR after the National Day holiday against the lower base period in the fourth quarter (Huazhu China, Atour, Jinjiang domestic limited service, Shunjv overall 4Q23 RevPAR recovery to around 120/109/100/91% of the levels in 19).
Duty-Free: During the National Day holiday, the flow of tourists in Hainan remained stable compared to the previous year; the new policy of duty-free shopping in the city has started to be implemented. 1) In terms of passenger flow, during the National Day holiday (10.1-10.7), the daily average number of passengers transported by Haikou Meilan Airport reached 78,266, which is nearly the same as the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays in 2023 (9.29-10.6). Compared to the National Day holidays in 2021 and 2019 (10.1-10.7), the average daily number of passengers has increased by 44/24% respectively; the first three days of the National Day holiday (10.1-10.3) Sanya Phoenix Airport transported an average of 62,309 passengers per day, an increase of 3% compared to the first three days of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays in 2023 (9.29-10.1); adding up Haikou Meilan and Sanya Phoenix two major airports, the average daily number of passengers transported in the first three days of the holiday increased by about 1% compared to the same period in 2023. In terms of sales, data from Hainan Daily shows that in the first four days of the holiday (10.1-10.4), the daily sales of 12 duty-free shops on outlying islands in Hainan exceeded 0.15 billion yuan.
Dining: Tourists drive growth in dine-in consumption. Meituan data shows that in the five days before the National Day, the daily average dine-in consumption increased by 33.4% compared to the National Day holiday in 2023, and looking at consumption time periods, night-time consumption increased by 44.8 percentage points compared to the 2023 holiday period. In dining scenes, tourist consumption increased by over 75% compared to the 2023 holiday, night market searches increased by 170.3% compared to the 2023 holiday, becoming the top search term near tourist attractions this year. On October 1st, Haidilao nationwide stores received over 1.9 million customers, an increase of over 5% compared to the same period last year.
Media: Overall sentiment has warmed up.
Movie Theater Line: The box office performance during the National Day holiday was flat, focusing on the subsequent pace of key content releases. According to Artisan, the box office revenue, including service fees, for the first six days of the 2024 National Day holiday (October 1 to October 6, 2024) was 1.95 billion yuan, a 13.1% decrease compared to the first six days of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday in 2023 (September 29 to October 4). The number of viewers was 48.24 million, down by 9.5% year-on-year; the average ticket price was 40.38 yuan, a 3.9% decrease year-on-year; the top three films in terms of box office were "Volunteers: Battle for Survival," "749 Bureau," and "Road of Fire." Looking ahead, according to Maoyan Professional Edition, the year-end New Year's films currently scheduled include "Liking You with a Little Lie" (12/31, Maoyan Master), "A Cloud Like You" (12/31, Wanda Master), and "Breakup List" (12/31, Taopiaopiao/China Film Group, etc.). The bank believes that with the conclusion of the National Day holiday, the end of the major movie release schedule for 2024, October to November may usher in a downturn in the film and television industry. Coupled with cautious audience viewing decisions, the current market's expectations for the full-year box office are relatively conservative, with a gradual transition to expectations for the 2025 Spring Festival lineup.
Risk
Macroeconomic outlook is lower than expected, regulatory policy changes, slow profit recovery, and intensified industry competition.
