海通国际则指出，过去10年来看，周度涨幅较大的情况中，本次H股银行单位交易量支撑的涨幅，招商银行不及2020年10月-2021年1月，强于2017年的5月和8月，国有大行比2020年和2017年都相对更弱。过去2周招商银行涨幅远超国有大行，24EPB超过1.0x，而国有大行目前不到0.5x。而招商银行和国有大行相比，尽管ROE更高，盈利预期方面在拨备前利润和归母净利润同比增速方面，未见明显超越。因此，我们认为如果短期如果港股整体发生回调，则招商银行可能回调的幅度会更大。Bank stocks fell across the board today. As of the time of publication, cm bank (03968) fell by 13.54% to HK$40.85; hang seng bank (00011) fell by 5.75% to HK$97.55; china construction bank corporation (00939) fell by 3.56% to HK$5.96; dahsing banking (02356) fell by 4.39% to HK$7.19.
According to the Wisdom Finance APP, bank stocks fell across the board today. As of the time of publication, cm bank (03968) fell by 13.54% to HK$40.85; hang seng bank (00011) fell by 5.75% to HK$97.55; china construction bank corporation (00939) fell by 3.56% to HK$5.96; dahsing banking (02356) fell by 4.39% to HK$7.19.
Deutsche Bank released a research report stating that the Hong Kong interbank offered rate has increased quarterly, with weak loan growth, continuing to put pressure on net interest income. The main impact of the rate cut will be seen in 2025, making NII a key focus. Non-interest income will remain strong, mainly benefiting from sustained robust wealth and market income support. Costs are expected to be well controlled. The bank expects that the credit loss rate will not bring surprises, although the non-performing loan rate of significant Hong Kong corporations may still rise.
haitong int'l pointed out that in the past 10 years, in cases with large weekly gains, the increase supported by unit trading volume of H-share banks in this period, cm bank is weaker compared to October 2020 - January 2021, but stronger than in May and August 2017. State-owned large banks are relatively weaker than both 2020 and 2017. In the past 2 weeks, cm bank has risen far more than state-owned large banks, with a 24EPB of over 1.0x, while state-owned large banks are currently less than 0.5x. Compared to state-owned large banks, although cm bank has a higher ROE, there is no clear outperformance in terms of profit expectations in terms of pre-provision profit and net income attributable to equity holders on a year-on-year basis. Therefore, we believe that if there is a short-term correction in the overall Hong Kong stock market, cm bank may experience a greater decline.
