According to the Wise Finance APP, the China Index Research Institute released a report stating that with the concentration of various pre-holiday policies, from the central bank's reserve and interest rate cuts, lowering down payment ratios, to the successive implementation of new real estate policies in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, especially since the Political Bureau meeting on September 26 proposed 'promoting the stabilization of the real estate market', it greatly boosted market confidence. During the National Day 'Golden Week', real estate companies generally increased their promotional efforts, with significant increases in the volume of visits and subscriptions to core city properties, surpassing the full month of September in some projects. The start of 'Silver Ten' performed 'better than expected', with clear signs of market stabilization. It is expected that the new policies will continue to show results in the short term, while the significant rebound in holiday subscription data will gradually be reflected in the signing data, and market sales data in October are expected to show significant growth.

The China Index Research Institute pointed out that looking at the performance of new property visits and subscriptions, the heat of most city markets significantly increased compared to before the holiday. According to the China Index monitoring, the average subscription volume of most surveyed projects in most cities during the National Day holiday exceeded that of the full month of September. Especially in first-tier cities driven by policy optimizations, the volume of visits and subscriptions for each project significantly increased, with Guangzhou and Shenzhen outperforming Beijing and Shanghai. During the holiday period, the average subscription volume of monitored projects in Guangzhou and Shenzhen doubled that of September. Beijing and Shanghai exceeded the subscription volume of September. It is worth noting that in addition to the good continuation of high-quality improvement projects in first-tier cities, several affordable housing projects also saw a significant improvement in sales during the National Day period. In second-tier cities, hotspots like Chengdu and Hangzhou maintained high activity, with an increase in transaction conversion rates, while cities like Chongqing still rely on large discounts to achieve project sales.

Table: Key City Market Performance during the 2024 National Day holiday (Project Research Status)

Note: The above information comes from the China Index Institute's summary data on the research status of key projects in major cities. Source: China Index Data CREIS

As for the signing situation, according to China Index data, during the National Day holiday period (10.1~10.7), the daily average transaction area for new homes in 25 representative cities decreased by about 27% compared to the previous year's holiday period (9.29-10.6). Taking into account that last year's National Day holiday included September 29-30, when some cities saw a higher volume of signings at the end of the month, if these two days are excluded, this year's holiday period saw a 23% increase in the daily average transaction area for new homes in the 25 representative cities compared to the holiday period last year (10.1-10.6). Additionally, due to the lag in signing data and the significant improvement in local subscription data during the holiday, it is expected that signing data in the coming weeks will see a significant improvement. In terms of existing homes, during the National Day holiday period, the number of second-hand home transactions in key cities generally increased compared to the previous year's National Day holiday. Especially in Shenzhen, Qingdao, and Wenzhou, the growth exceeded 100%, while Beijing saw a decrease in performance compared to the same period last year due to delayed signing.

Figure: Average daily transaction area of new houses in 25 representative cities during the National Day holiday from 2021 to 2024 (signing data caliber).

Table: Transaction situation of new residential properties in representative cities during the National Day holiday in 2024 (10.1~10.7) (in 10,000 square meters).

Note: The data for Guangzhou, Maoming, Meizhou, Shantou, Xiangyang, Zhanjiang, and Jining does not include October 7, 2024. Jiangyin does not include data on October 3 and October 6. Data source: China Real Estate Information Corporation.

Table: Transaction situation of second-hand houses in key cities during the National Day holiday in 2024 (10.1~10.7) (units).

Data Source: CREIS Data

Peking: Prior to the holiday, the new policies in Peking were implemented as scheduled, boosting the market heat during the National Day holiday. Online consultation volume, site visits, subscriptions, and second-hand house viewings all showed a significant increase compared to the same period last year and September, with both new and second-hand house transaction volumes reaching the peak during the National Day holiday in recent years. The conversion rate of projects in hotspot areas exceeded 10%.

Looking at the performance over the past seven days, the visits and subscriptions for new houses in Peking showed high levels at the beginning and end of the holiday, with a slight dip in the middle of the market trend. In the first few days before the holiday, after the new policies were released, the market responded swiftly, and the previous intended customers quickly made reservations. Multiple real estate companies in Peking released posters of hot selling properties. With the impact of holiday travel, site visits and subscriptions subsequently declined; towards the end of the holiday, the return flow back to Peking led to a noticeable increase in site visits. In terms of project performance, the market continued to differentiate, with areas such as Chaoyang, Haidian, Tongzhou, and Changping showing more active markets. Customers preferred projects with high cost performance, while the performance of projects reaching completion was relatively average.

Shanghai: On September 29, Shanghai announced new property control policies, adjustments were made from the perspectives of essential needs, improvements, and second-hand property transactions. Amid the National Day period, the enthusiasm in Shanghai's property market notably increased, with some projects experiencing average subscription levels during the holiday equivalent to the entire month of September. In terms of new properties, two projects were launched, and 8 projects saw subscription during the National Day period. As the new policy required external taxes to be paid after one year instead of three, it significantly lowered the purchasing threshold for essential needs customers. Most projects saw an increase in visits and subscriptions during the National Day period, with Poly Western Suburbs and Xuer boasting a subscription rate of over 80%. In the realm of second-hand properties, the policy of reducing the period for VAT exemption from 5 years to 2 years, as well as the cancellation of non-standard residential standards, both decreased the purchasing cost of second-hand houses, leading to a noticeable increase in the number of viewings.

Guangzhou: On September 29, Guangzhou completely lifted property purchase restrictions and lowered the down payment ratio for second homes, resulting in increased market heat during the 'Golden Week' of the National Day. Several real estate projects showed high on-site popularity, with a significant increase in visits and subscriptions. The pace of homebuyers entering the market noticeably accelerated, with multiple projects from companies like Poly and Yuexiu welcoming over 1000 groups of visitors during the National Day period, completing their sales tasks ahead of time. It is expected that moving forward, driven by favorable policies and the gradual recovery of homebuyer confidence, market demand will gradually be unleashed.

Shenzhen: On September 29, Shenzhen released new property policies including relaxing purchase restrictions, eliminating sales restrictions, reducing the VAT exemption period from 5 years to 2 years, and optimizing personal housing loans. This new policy serves as an incentive for essential needs, essential transformation, and high-end property customers.

The combination of new property policies and the National Day holiday effect not only enhanced the willingness of local residents in Shenzhen to enter the market but also attracted a significant number of out-of-town and overseas homebuyers. The viewing volume at various new property marketing centers surged, with numerous sales offices operating 24 hours and some properties experiencing queues for show flats. There was a flurry of successful transactions, with multiple projects in Nanshan, Guangming, and Longhua districts receiving over 1000 groups of visitors. According to data from the Shenzhen Housing and Construction Bureau, the subscription volume for newly built commercial residential properties in the city increased by 664.1% compared to the same period last year. Homebuyers' expectations for the future market and confidence in property prices have strengthened, setting a positive tone for Shenzhen's property market in the fourth quarter following the National Day holiday.

Chengdu: During the National Day holiday, the real estate market in Chengdu showed a strong growth momentum, with a significant increase in site visits and transactions, and a noticeable recovery in market confidence. Prior to the National Day holiday, the continuous enhancement of favorable policies, including city-level policies like "No first home in the district counts as the first" and "old-for-new" policies, as well as district-level initiatives such as support for home purchase for schooling, the distribution of housing subsidies, and rewards in the form of housing vouchers, all quickly boosted the intention of homebuyers to enter the market. Project visits significantly increased across the board, with a 2 to 10-fold increase before the holiday, with some popular projects requiring appointments and achieving daily visit numbers of over 100 groups. The conversion rate generally improved from 5%-8% to 9%-13%.

Hangzhou: Boosted by major positive news before the holiday, both the supply and demand in Hangzhou's property market saw increased activity levels during the National Day holiday. On the supply side, 8 projects were launched during the 7-day holiday, with over 700 new housing units. Real estate companies conducted marketing activities frequently, offering visit gifts, subscription bonuses, free parking spaces upon purchase, coupons, direct price reductions, huge incentives for properties, and promotions like lucky draws. On the demand side, the market experienced a mini peak in home purchases. Among the launched projects, 2 were through a lottery system (with the number of registrants exceeding the available units), attracting 1877 groups of customers for the 213 units offered on October 5 by Binyun Jinxiuli, with an average lottery success rate as low as 11.35%. The lottery enthusiasm slightly surpassed other projects like Shoukai and Chaoyumingcuixuan, attracting 218 groups for the 150 units at express pace. Apart from these launch projects, sales offices during the National Day period saw significantly higher visitation rates compared to the previous period, with multiple popular projects attracting several hundred groups of viewers, achieving sales of around 70 to 80 units, and even poorly performing projects from earlier receiving high visitor numbers, with daily visitation doubling growth rates, and a cumulative transaction volume during the 7-day National Day period reaching previous monthly levels.

Chongqing: With the implementation of several positive policies in September and the National Day holiday, multiple developments in Chongqing have accelerated their listing. The foot traffic and transactions at sales offices have significantly increased, with Poly Light Dusty Shade, Poly Time Zone, and Mountain Language Peach Blossom all receiving over 200 groups of visitors. However, each development still primarily attracts customers with discounts and incentives.

Xi'an: Before the holiday, Xi'an Real Estate Association responded to the China Real Estate Industry Association's "Hundred Cities Thousand Enterprises Promotional Activities for Commercial Housing". At the same time, developers have intensified their marketing efforts and introduced various housing purchase discount measures (mostly multiple discounts of 99%, actually around 5% off), including vouchers for parking spaces, group discounts, special price units, floor heating, and enclosed balconies. During the holiday period, the number of visitors to sales offices has generally increased, and the performance of popular projects during the holiday period has shown a significant increase in visits and transactions. It is reported that China Merchants Shekou subscribed to a total of 307 units worth 1.03 billion, Vanke subscribed to 377 units totaling 0.4 billion, and COFCO Joy Future City sold single units valued at over 0.32 billion.

Tianjin: With the introduction of a series of positive policies before the holiday, the real estate market in Tianjin is showing signs of stabilization and recovery. During the National Day holiday, the average daily number of new home transactions exceeded that of the same period last year, indicating a recovery in market confidence. However, there is still a clear differentiation in the real estate market, with good performance in the main urban areas and surrounding areas. The number of visits and subscriptions has significantly increased from before the holiday, and the overall transaction volume has doubled compared to September, with project conversion rates in areas like Hexi and Xiqing reaching around 30% to 40%. Hot projects during the holiday period mainly focus on affordable housing, high-quality improvement properties, and new properties, making these types of properties the main force in holiday transactions. Overall, during the National Day holiday, the Tianjin real estate market has shown signs of recovery under the influence of policies.

Wuhan: During the holiday period, market activity in terms of site visits and subscriptions has significantly increased. On September 30, Wuhan announced the "Han Ten Measures 3.0", which includes measures such as optimizing the criteria for determining the number of personal housing loans, providing temporary purchase discounts, optimizing pre-sale management programs, and promoting the consumption of housing through "old-for-new" initiatives. Meanwhile, Wuhan East Lake High Technology Group and Economic Development Zone, among other regions, have held special real estate fairs, with major developers seizing the opportunity window and actively promoting sales in conjunction with the Golden Autumn Housing Festival. However, due to significant prior project discounts, there is limited room for further discounts during the National Day holiday. In terms of effectiveness, there is a high level of interest among homebuyers, with a significant increase in site visits compared to before the holiday. The sales situation in some projects has significantly improved, with the average subscription during the holiday period being approximately 1.3 times that of September. However, looking at the number of signed contracts, the daily average transaction volume still shows a decrease compared to the same period last year due to the higher base from the previous year and the lag in contract data.

Qingdao: The real estate market in Qingdao was active during the National Day holiday, with increased foot traffic to developments and improved conversion rates. During the holiday period, major developments offered discount incentives, competitive improvement in property quality, reduced market supply, and recent expectations of price increases, all of which had a significant impact on the National Day real estate market trends. In the short term, the market remains sensitive to prices, and market observers have responded quickly to expectations of price increases in individual developments. The long-term performance will depend on the strength of subsequent policies.

Zhengzhou: During the Golden Week holiday, the Zhengzhou market showed high activity, with over 100 groups visiting multiple projects daily, and subscription levels significantly higher than in previous periods. Some projects have slightly reduced their incentives compared to before the holiday, while a few have even raised sales prices. Overall, this year's National Day holiday saw a peak in sentiment in the Zhengzhou real estate market, with significant improvements in market confidence on both the developer and customer sides. With continued policy support, the market prospects for stabilization after the downturn are promising.

Nanjing: During the holiday period, the new housing market in Nanjing showed a vibrant scene, with multiple projects offering various National Day holiday limited-time discounts such as an additional 3% discount, limited-time 15% off, and work-for-housing programs. The number of visitors to most projects' sales offices has noticeably increased, with transaction agreements significantly higher than in the same period last year. Before the holiday, South New City applied for sales permission in a pure new development. During the National Day holiday, the project saw over 500 groups of visitors. Currently, market confidence has somewhat recovered, but there is still a significant gap between districts, showing signs of localized improvement, with core areas and luxury residences leading the recovery.

Suzhou: During the holiday period, many developments in Suzhou have launched a series of promotional measures. Overall, there has been an increase in the number of visitors to new properties and viewings of second-hand properties, with slightly reduced negotiation difficulties between buyers and sellers compared to September. Subscription situations have also been better than before the holiday, but there is still a clear market differentiation, with less attention on developments in non-core areas.

Looking ahead, from a policy perspective, there is still room for optimization in the restrictive policies of peking, shanghai, and shenzhen in the future. Second-tier and third- and fourth-tier cities are also expected to increase housing subsidies, further promoting market stability in terms of both volume and price. It is worth noting that in addition to the "sales promotion" policy, improving state-owned enterprises' inventory reduction policies will also be an important focus of future policies. At the market level, the current performance of the beginning of the "Silver Ten" season is "beyond expectations," with a clear trend of market stabilization in core cities. Residents' confidence in home purchases is starting to recover, and it is expected that the new policies will continue to show results in the short term. At the same time, the significant rebound in holiday subscription data will gradually be reflected in the signing data, and October's market sales data may show significant growth.

Next, driving the improvement of the economic fundamentals remains the key to stabilizing the real estate market and expectations. If policies continue to strengthen and the economy accelerates its recovery in the fourth quarter, the real estate market in core cities may bottom out and stabilize, with the national market also expected to stabilize.