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There's Reason For Concern Over Liaoning Port Co., Ltd.'s (HKG:2880) Massive 30% Price Jump

Simply Wall St ·  Oct 8 03:41

Liaoning Port Co., Ltd. (HKG:2880) shareholders have had their patience rewarded with a 30% share price jump in the last month. Looking further back, the 22% rise over the last twelve months isn't too bad notwithstanding the strength over the last 30 days.

Following the firm bounce in price, Liaoning Port's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 14.6x might make it look like a sell right now compared to the market in Hong Kong, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 11x and even P/E's below 6x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/E.

As an illustration, earnings have deteriorated at Liaoning Port over the last year, which is not ideal at all. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

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SEHK:2880 Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry October 8th 2024
Although there are no analyst estimates available for Liaoning Port, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Does Growth Match The High P/E?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as high as Liaoning Port's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 3.2%. As a result, earnings from three years ago have also fallen 49% overall. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 22% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term earnings results is a sobering picture.

In light of this, it's alarming that Liaoning Port's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

What We Can Learn From Liaoning Port's P/E?

Liaoning Port shares have received a push in the right direction, but its P/E is elevated too. We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We've established that Liaoning Port currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Many other vital risk factors can be found on the company's balance sheet. Our free balance sheet analysis for Liaoning Port with six simple checks will allow you to discover any risks that could be an issue.

If you're unsure about the strength of Liaoning Port's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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