The Zhitong Finance App learned that Huachuang Securities released a research report saying that National Day consumption resilience is still there, improving slightly from month to month, and the policy is yet to be further implemented and transmitted. Macroeconomic policies have changed drastically before the holiday season, and residents' expectations and confidence have improved, but they have not been clearly transmitted to specific consumption behavior. The overall consumer perception is still resilient and flat year over year. Compared with summer consumption, Mid-Autumn Festival consumption, etc., there has been a slight improvement, and the policy is yet to be further implemented and transmitted. The National Day liquor sales atmosphere was slightly better than the Mid-Autumn Festival, with a slight year-on-year decline. The channel expected the total sales drop for the two holidays by about double digits. In terms of the scene, popular banquet scenes such as wedding receptions were basically the same compared to the same period. The performance was better than the Mid-Autumn Festival, and business banquets made up for it compared to the Mid-Autumn Festival. Looking at the price band and brand, the price and sales of ultra-high-end Maotai (600519.SH) have improved, and the sales performance of leading brands that account for relatively high prices with banquets is relatively good.

National Day consumption resilience is still there, improving slightly from month to month, and the policy is yet to be further implemented and transmitted. Macroeconomic policies have changed drastically before the holiday season, and residents' expectations and confidence have improved, but they have not been clearly transmitted to specific consumption behavior. The overall consumer perception is still resilient and flat year over year. Compared with summer consumption, Mid-Autumn Festival consumption, etc., there has been a slight improvement, and the policy is yet to be further implemented and transmitted. Specifically, data from the Ministry of Transport shows that the number of people moving across regions from October 1 to 5 exceeded 1.46 billion, up 24.0%/2.8% from 2019/2023, respectively; the popularity of scenic spots exceeded expectations, and the same journey data showed that reservations for popular scenic spots on the first 3 days of the holiday increased by nearly 30%; restaurants and hotels improved slightly year-on-year, and the same restaurant in Haidilao remained flat year on month.

Overall performance of liquor sales on the National Day: marginal improvement from month to month, and banquets made up slightly from year to year. According to feedback from various channels, the National Day liquor sales atmosphere was slightly better than the Mid-Autumn Festival, with a slight drop over the previous year. The channel expected the total sales drop for the two festivals to be about double digits. In terms of the scene, popular banquet scenes such as wedding receptions were basically the same compared to the same period. The performance was better than the Mid-Autumn Festival, and business banquets made up for it compared to the Mid-Autumn Festival. Looking at the price band and brand, ultra-high-end Maotai prices and sales have improved. The sales performance of leading brands with relatively high popular prices, such as Jiannanchun, Fenjiu, Shuijingfang, etc., is still under pressure. Overall, leading price chains have strong pricing, stable inventory, and repayment progress of 70%-90%, which is also more rational. For a further summary, see:

Characteristics: First, the peak season effect has weakened. On the one hand, the Mid-Autumn Festival National Day front has lengthened, and centralized shipments have been scattered; on the other hand, enthusiasm for holiday travel has increased, and the demand for drinking has declined slightly. Second, wine companies' strategies are also more rational and pragmatic. Wine companies' sales teams generally strengthen daily communication with channel terminals, moderately relax payment and delivery requirements to help relieve pressure. The peak season continues past practices to promote sales, but most of the policies revolve around side products, and the main products focus on price stability.

Highlights: First, National Day sales improved month-on-month. National Day sales declined slightly year-on-year. The month-on-month boom was better than Mid-Autumn Festival, and channel confidence increased slightly. Second, the wholesale price of high-end wine is strong, and the price strategy of wine companies is more rational. During the National Day, wine companies generally did not make large shipments and carried out various marketing activities to help sales. Maotai strengthened control over the pace of delivery, and the wholesale price of Feitian increased by about 50 yuan to 2,400 yuan; Wuliangye began shipping at 1,019 yuan, and the wholesale price remained in the 930-940 yuan range; Gaoguojiao's wholesale price was 870 yuan, and the price of Jiannanchun Crystal Sword remained stable at 400 yuan+.

Feedback from key companies: Prices of first-tier wine companies have rebounded steadily, and regional wine companies have continued their overall Mid-Autumn Festival performance:

First-tier brands: Wholesale prices picked up, and the double-quarter decline performance narrowed. Maotai's repayment schedule is close to 90%, and the shipping pace is well controlled. The batch price of the Feitian box/bottle is 2,400/2,310 yuan. Everywhere, 30-50 yuan rebounded. Inventory was digested within half a month, and non-standard inventory was also digested. Wuliangye repaid 90% +, National Day sales picked up, Pu 5 prices remained relatively good, and 1618 benefited from an increase in National Day banquets, maintaining a relatively fast turnover. Laojiao's repayment of 70-75% is progressing slightly slowly. It is expected that the completion of the task will be delayed until the end of the year, and the price of Laojiao is stable. Fenjiu's repayment schedule was around 85%, and the blue and white batch price picked up. The growth rate was boosted, driving an increase in the share of the Q3 blue and white series. Panama and Lao Baifen benefited from stronger policies and superimposed banquet catalysis. The growth rate ranked first. The price of Bofen fell slightly, and the overall inventory was digested.

Base-type sub-high-end: Continuing the Mid-Autumn Festival performance, and banquets drive storage. Sujiu Jinshiyuan's overall repayment process is 90%. The upgrade has been completed on all four channels, the batch price is stable, and the single store and elegant maintain a high turnover. Yanghe focused on inventory digestion, and the National Day banquet accelerated digestion. The overall repayment process was 80% slower than the same period last year, making it difficult to complete tasks throughout the year. The repayment within Huijiu Gujing Province has basically been completed. The overall performance of the National Day banquet was weaker than last year. Inventory increased slightly. Gu 16 maintained high turnover, and Gu 8's inventory increased slightly. The growth rate declined month-on-month compared to the Mid-Autumn Festival. Inventory pressure decreased, prices in Cave 6 stabilized, and dinners boosted turnover. Prices in Cave 9 increased, leading to a slight decline in growth. Kouzijiao's growth rate is relatively good under a low base, and the 8 high-fee investment market acceptance is high, and turnover has accelerated.

Expansive sub-high-end: Sales continue to be under pressure, and Shuijing Fang is relatively good. Shide and Alcoholics maintained their overall downward performance. Under high inventories, channels were cautious, and repayment progress was slow. Overall, Shuijingfang's repayment performance in the first quarter of the new fiscal year was better than that of Shui Te and Alcoholics, and inventory was digested sequentially.

Investment advice: Repairing the valuation and following the trend. Currently, market risk appetite is rising, and there is still room for sector valuation repair. Although the fundamentals of National Day sales are still under pressure, there has been a slight improvement from month to month. The three-quarter report and the target setting of wine companies for the coming year will be the key for the fourth quarter. The inflection point for next year looks at the price price of old Maotai wine, and second, the forecast is stabilizing, and short-term suggestions follow the trend. In terms of selecting specific targets:

First, starting from certainty, liquor is strategically equipped with both Maotai (600519.SH) and Wuliangye (000858.SZ), and secondly, Fenjiu (600809.SH), Gujing Gongjiu (000596.SZ), etc. are recommended. Second, from the perspective of excessive decline and elasticity, Luzhou Laojiao (000568.SZ) is preferred, while regional leaders recommend Jinshiyuan (603369.SH).

Risk warning: Terminal demand recovery falls short of expectations, industry competition intensifies, etc.