On October 8th, Financial Associated Press (Reporter: Li Jie) With the concentration of many heavyweight real estate policies before the National Day, from the central bank's reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, to the reduction of down payment ratios, and the stabilization mentioned at the political bureau meeting, followed by the relaxation of real estate regulation in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, greatly boosting market confidence.

From the perspective of policy effectiveness, many real estate markets showed a hot scene during the National Day "Golden Week". According to data from Kerui Monitoring, in the eleven key cities, the subscription area increased by 12% compared to the previous month, and increased by 26% year-on-year.

Analysts pointed out that first-tier cities saw a significant increase in new and second-hand housing transactions under the promotion of policy optimization, with better performance in Guangzhou and Shenzhen than in Beijing and Shanghai.

According to data from multiple institutions, during the National Day period, new housing transactions in Beijing increased by over 200% year-on-year, and second-hand housing increased by over 150%; Shenzhen's new housing subscription volume increased by 664.14% compared to the same period last year; Shanghai's new housing transactions also doubled year-on-year; the visiting and subscription volume of new projects in Guangzhou increased significantly.

For real estate companies, Poly Developments and Holdings Group achieved a nationwide transaction amount of approximately 14.8 billion yuan during the Golden Week, a 47% increase compared to last year. Yuexiu Property accumulated a sales subscription amount of 9.19 billion yuan, hitting a historical high for the same period. Longfor's sales in multiple cities across the country have all improved, with a daily subscription volume increasing by over 20% compared to the eleven-day period in 2023; month-on-month, the average subscription growth during this year's Labor Day, Mid-Autumn Festival, and Golden Week holidays reached 70%-80%.

"The current performance of the 'Silver October' far exceeds expectations, core city markets show a clear stabilizing trend, residents' confidence in homebuying is beginning to recover, and it is expected that new policies will continue to demonstrate effects in the short term, with October's market sales data likely to show significant growth." Xu Yuejin, Deputy Director of the Research Institute of Zhongzheng Institute, expressed that looking ahead, in terms of policies, there is still room for optimization of restrictive policies in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen in the future, and second and third-tier cities are also expected to increase housing subsidies to further promote market stabilization in terms of both volume and price.

Beijing's real estate market reached a high point in recent years during the Golden Week.

During the 2024 National Day holiday, the capital market in Beijing achieved the highest trading volume in recent years for the same period.

Statistics from the China Real Estate Research Institute show that during the 2024 National Day holiday in Beijing, the real estate trading volume reached the highest point in recent years for the same period, with new residence sales increasing by over 200% year-on-year and second-hand housing prices rising by over 150%.

Specifically, after the new policy "930" in 2024, the real estate trading volume in Beijing during the National Day holiday continued to rise. The accumulated number of new residential units sold was close to 2000, nearly 3 times higher than the approximately 600 units sold during the 2023 National Day holiday. The actual transactions for second-hand houses reached around 5500 units, representing an increase of over 175% year-on-year.

The significant increase in trading volume in Beijing is due to the major loosening of real estate regulations. On the evening of September 30, Beijing significantly optimized its home purchase restrictions, reducing the social security period required for non-locals within the Fifth Ring Road to 3 years and outside the Fifth Ring Road to 2 years. Additionally, the minimum down payment ratio for personal housing loans was lowered, and general and non-general housing standards were abolished.

Following the new policy during the National Day holiday, data such as online inquiries for Beijing projects, site visits, subscriptions, and second-hand house viewings all showed significant growth compared to the same period in previous years and September. According to data from the China Index Institute, both new property and second-hand property transactions in Beijing reached the highest levels in recent years during the National Day holiday, with conversion rates in hot areas exceeding 10%.

Specifically, Longfor's Longhu Guancui project in Beijing experienced another peak after its opening during the National Day holiday. On October 1 alone, there were 10 groups of customers who made immediate transactions. The average daily customer visits during the October 1 to October 6 period approached 100 groups, a 50% increase compared to the previous period. With over 5 transactions per day on average, 32 units were sold during the period, generating sales of 0.19 billion and a sales velocity increase of over 120%.

According to sales representatives of the project, most of the transactions during the National Day holiday were from young first-time homebuyers. Previously, they were unable to make purchases due to restrictions on social security years and insufficient down payments. The adjustment in the down payment and social security year limit policies has completely resolved the qualification and affordability issues for customers.

In addition, during the National Day period, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings' Zhaoshang Xi project signed 65 units with sales reaching 1 billion yuan; while the Yuan Xi project in Shijingshan signed around 80 units with a contract amount of 0.86 billion.

"Although the transaction volume has significantly increased in the short term, whether it is newly-built or second-hand houses, the overall transactions still mainly trade volume for price." Zhang Dawei, Chief Analyst of China Real Estate, stated that especially for newly built residential properties that were relatively slow-moving in the earlier period, prices have been adjusting noticeably recently.

According to Zhang Dawei, it is expected that the signing and transaction volume in Beijing in the second half of October will significantly increase. Even under the influence of the long holiday, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in October is expected to remain at around 0.013 million units, in the middle to high range.

A large number of out-of-town and overseas home buyers have been added in Shenzhen.

During the National Day holiday, Shenzhen's property market also saw a substantial increase in transaction volume.

Data released by the Shenzhen Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau shows that during the National Day holiday, 1841 units of newly-built commercial residences were subscribed and sold in Shenzhen, totaling 0.1918 million square meters. The subscription volume increased by 664.14% compared to the same period last year; as for second-hand houses, the city's top agencies had viewing and transaction volumes of approximately 0.024 million people and 1314 units respectively, with daily averages increasing by 22% and 339% compared to the 2023 National Day holiday.

According to data from the Shenzhen China Real Estate Research Center, during this year's National Day holiday (10.1-10.6), the average daily visit count for Shenzhen Zhongyuan property searches exceeded one million, with inquiry volume exceeding 5000. The transaction volume for second-hand houses in their stores increased by 279% year-on-year, and for newly-built houses, it rose by 1053%.

"The new property policies combined with the effects of the National Day holiday have not only increased the willingness of local Shenzhen residents to enter the market, but also added a large number of out-of-town and overseas homebuyers." Xu Yuejin stated.

It is reported that on September 29th, Shenzhen issued new property policies, including relaxing purchase restrictions, lifting sales restrictions, adjusting the exemption year for the VAT from 5 years to 2 years, and optimizing personal housing loans.

After the new policies, the viewing volume at sales centers of various new housing developments in Shenzhen soared, with many sales offices open for 24 hours, some projects experiencing queueing for model rooms, and frequent good news on transactions. Over 1000 groups visited multiple projects in Nanshan, Guangming, and Longhua districts, as stated by analysts from China Real Estate Information Corporation.

Reporters learned that after the new policies, the overall visitation volume at Shenzhen Guangming Yuhu Jing project during the holidays increased by 300% compared to September, doubled on weekends compared to pre-policy times, transaction volume increased by approximately 3 times, and daily transaction amount exceeded one billion for multiple consecutive days.

Many customers who had not made purchases due to lack of market confidence during the National Day holiday came back to revisit and reconsider. With the new policies and overall market excitement, confidence in buying houses significantly increased, and the decision-making time for new customers was greatly shortened. Additionally, some individuals were motivated by the increased quotas after the new policies, considering buying a third property or purchasing for their children, as told by staff at Guangming Yuhu Jing project.

Analysts point out that buyers in Shenzhen are more optimistic about future market expectations and housing prices after the new policies, making the National Day holiday a good start for Shenzhen's real estate market in the fourth quarter.

Several real estate projects in Guangzhou completed their National Day holiday sales tasks ahead of schedule.

After 14 years, the property purchase restrictions in the Guangzhou real estate market were completely lifted on September 29, becoming the first frontline city in the country to 'lift restrictions.'

With a combination of multiple favorable policies and unprecedented promotional activities, the market heat during Guangzhou's 'Golden Week' surged. Several projects had high on-site popularity, with both visitations and subscriptions significantly increasing, leading to a noticeable acceleration in homebuyers' market entry pace.

It is reported that property developers like Poly, Vanke, Yuexiu, and Longfor, with multiple projects in Guangzhou, received visits from over 1000 groups during the National Day period, with several projects completing their sales targets ahead of schedule.

Specifically, during the Golden Week holiday, Poly Developments and Holdings Group achieved sales of 5 billion yuan in Guangdong. Meanwhile, China Vanke's transaction volume in the Guangzhou-Foshan area approached 3 billion, with the China Vanke Huangpu New Town project in Huangpu recording over 2000 group visits during the holiday with over 210 units sold; the Wanxi Ideal Flower Land project in Liwan also exceeded 200 units sold; and the Jinmao Vanke Doucheng Four Seasons project in Zengcheng also surpassed 200 units in pre-sales.

"According to on-site data statistics, after the new policies, customer visits have significantly increased, with a daily average of nearly 200 group visits, which is double the usual amount. Sales consultants have been receiving visitors until midnight," said sales staff at Longfor's Yu Hu Jing project in Guangzhou. By the evening of October 7th, the accumulated number of visiting customers during the holiday period exceeded 1500 groups.

"It is expected that with the boost from favorable policies and the gradual recovery of homebuyers' confidence, the demand in the Guangzhou market will gradually be unleashed," said the aforementioned analyst from China Real Estate Research Institute.

Shanghai's new home subscriptions have significantly increased.

During the National Day holiday, there has been a noticeable increase in Shanghai's real estate market activity.

On September 29th, Shanghai released new real estate regulations, adjusting aspects related to rigid demand, home upgrades, and second-hand home transactions. This includes changes to the restrictions on properties outside the outer ring, a "3-to-1" social security policy, a "5-to-2" value-added tax policy, and the removal of restrictions on non-ordinary residential properties.

According to analysts from CRIC, the market in Shanghai quickly picked up after the introduction of the new regulations. In terms of typical project performance, visits and subscriptions for traditional rigid demand projects mostly outperformed the first week after the new regulations on September 30th. The daily average number of subscriptions post-September 30th compared to post-September 27th for projects such as Greenland Jiafenghui, Greenland Jiaying (villas), Huafa Seascape City, and China Merchants Shekou Landmark Harbor all increased by over 50%.

"The change in the outer ring's tax requirements from three years to one year under the new regulations significantly reduced the purchasing threshold for rigid demand customers. Most projects saw an increase in visits and subscriptions during the National Day holiday, with Poly Springs Huaxu having a subscription rate exceeding 80%," said the mentioned analyst from China Real Estate Research Institute.

In terms of second-hand housing, the extension of the Shanghai VAT exemption period from "5 years to 2 years" policy, as well as the cancellation of non-standard residence standards, have both reduced the purchase cost of second-hand houses, leading to a significant increase in viewings.

"Overall, the National Day market subscription data is still significantly better than September and the May Day holiday. The overall market has shown signs of stabilizing after the previous decline. Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen are directly benefiting from policy advantages. Both new and second-hand property transactions have seen a substantial rebound. Cities like Tianjin, Wuhan, and Zhengzhou, which underwent deep adjustments earlier, are now showing signs of increased visits and subscriptions in the short term. Although most other cities have relatively flat markets, basic transactions have also reached a bottoming phase, with a high probability of stabilizing and rebounding in October," said the analyst from CRIC.

Zhang Dawei believes that from a national perspective, compared to the most relaxed moments in the history of various cities, there is still plenty of room for relaxation in current real estate policies.

On October 8, the director of the National Development and Reform Commission stated in a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that while effectively implementing existing policies, efforts will be intensified to launch a set of incremental policies focusing on enhancing countercyclical regulation, expanding domestic effective demand, increasing support for enterprises, stabilizing and stimulating the real estate market, and boosting the capital markets. This aims to promote sustained economic recovery and improvement.

Li Yu Jia, Chief Researcher of the Housing Policy Research Center of the Guangdong Provincial Urban and Rural Planning Institute, stated that the recent attitude of the National Development and Reform Commission on real estate continues the tone of the political bureau meeting, while actively planning and promoting other policies. It is expected that new policies will be introduced in the future, including reducing or exempting the deed tax, VAT, personal income tax on second-hand property transactions, as well as further lowering the loan prime rate and driving a further reduction in mortgage interest rates.