“即使欧洲央行下周决定降息，这也不意味着12月会再降一次。”The market originally bet that the European Central Bank would cut interest rates in both October and December, with European Central Bank Governor Vasle's comments this time seen as a counterattack on this expectation. He warned that although the European economy is weak, this bet may be a natural reaction, but the European Central Bank will not be forced to take any action.
At the meeting next week, the European Central Bank will decide on interest rate policies. A senior official from the European Central Bank hinted that even if there is a rate cut in October, it does not necessarily mean there will be another one in December.
On Tuesday, October 8, Bostjan Vasle, a member of the ECB Governing Council and the Governor of the Central Bank of Slovenia, described this month's rate cut as "an option" in an interview with Bloomberg.
"Even if the European Central Bank decides to cut rates next week, it does not mean there will be another cut in December."
Investors originally bet that the ECB would cut rates six times by the end of 2025, from the current 3.5% to 2%, with two rate cuts expected at the meetings in October and December this year.
Vasle's comments this time are seen as a counter to investors' expectations. He warned that while the European economy is weak, such bets may be a natural reaction, but ECB officials will not be forced into any action.
"The market does not dictate our decisions, however, this information is very valuable for our discussions."
Vasle also stated that by the end of 2025, the ECB's interest rates may be lowered to neutral levels. Inflation risks are decreasing, but there are still some uncertainties.
In September, the eurozone inflation cooled down, marking the largest month-on-month decline since January 2024, falling below the European Central Bank's 2% target for the first time since 2021. Investors significantly increased their bets on the ECB's rate cut in October.
On September 27, Deutsche Bank released a report predicting that the European Central Bank will start a series of 25 basis points rate cuts from December until reaching a final interest rate of 2%-2.5%. At the same time, the possibility of a direct 50 basis points rate cut by the European Central Bank in December cannot be ruled out.
