The Citic Press Corporation (SZSE:300788) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 43%. Taking a wider view, although not as strong as the last month, the full year gain of 23% is also fairly reasonable.
Following the firm bounce in price, given close to half the companies in China have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 33x, you may consider Citic Press as a stock to avoid entirely with its 54.9x P/E ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.
Recent times haven't been advantageous for Citic Press as its earnings have been falling quicker than most other companies. It might be that many expect the dismal earnings performance to recover substantially, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. If not, then existing shareholders may be very nervous about the viability of the share price.
If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on Citic Press.
Is There Enough Growth For Citic Press?
In order to justify its P/E ratio, Citic Press would need to produce outstanding growth well in excess of the market.
Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 7.3%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk EPS by 63% in aggregate. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the six analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 23% each year over the next three years. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to only expand by 19% per year, which is noticeably less attractive.
In light of this, it's understandable that Citic Press' P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently shareholders aren't keen to offload something that is potentially eyeing a more prosperous future.
The Bottom Line On Citic Press' P/E
The strong share price surge has got Citic Press' P/E rushing to great heights as well. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.
As we suspected, our examination of Citic Press' analyst forecasts revealed that its superior earnings outlook is contributing to its high P/E. At this stage investors feel the potential for a deterioration in earnings isn't great enough to justify a lower P/E ratio. It's hard to see the share price falling strongly in the near future under these circumstances.
Before you take the next step, you should know about the 2 warning signs for Citic Press (1 is potentially serious!) that we have uncovered.
You might be able to find a better investment than Citic Press. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).
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