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Harbin Xinguang Optic-Electronics Technology Co.,Ltd.'s (SHSE:688011) Shares Climb 55% But Its Business Is Yet to Catch Up

Simply Wall St ·  Oct 9 06:39

Harbin Xinguang Optic-Electronics Technology Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:688011) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 55% after a shaky period beforehand. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 23% over that time.

After such a large jump in price, Harbin Xinguang Optic-Electronics TechnologyLtd may be sending strong sell signals at present with a price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 11.7x, when you consider almost half of the companies in the Electronic industry in China have P/S ratios under 4x and even P/S lower than 2x aren't out of the ordinary. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.

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SHSE:688011 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry October 8th 2024

How Harbin Xinguang Optic-Electronics TechnologyLtd Has Been Performing

For example, consider that Harbin Xinguang Optic-Electronics TechnologyLtd's financial performance has been pretty ordinary lately as revenue growth is non-existent. One possibility is that the P/S is high because investors think the benign revenue growth will improve to outperform the broader industry in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Harbin Xinguang Optic-Electronics TechnologyLtd, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?

Harbin Xinguang Optic-Electronics TechnologyLtd's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the industry.

Taking a look back first, we see that there was hardly any revenue growth to speak of for the company over the past year. Whilst it's an improvement, it wasn't enough to get the company out of the hole it was in, with revenue down 8.4% overall from three years ago. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 26% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this information, we find it concerning that Harbin Xinguang Optic-Electronics TechnologyLtd is trading at a P/S higher than the industry. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Bottom Line On Harbin Xinguang Optic-Electronics TechnologyLtd's P/S

Shares in Harbin Xinguang Optic-Electronics TechnologyLtd have seen a strong upwards swing lately, which has really helped boost its P/S figure. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

We've established that Harbin Xinguang Optic-Electronics TechnologyLtd currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. Right now we aren't comfortable with the high P/S as this revenue performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the the circumstances surrounding the recent medium-term improve, it wouldn't be wrong to expect a a difficult period ahead for the company's shareholders.

Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Harbin Xinguang Optic-Electronics TechnologyLtd (1 is potentially serious) you should be aware of.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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